Washington, DC:
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Jarkko Turunen visited
Kathmandu during February 15-28 and held discussions with a broad range of
stakeholders in the context of the 2023 Article IV consultation and the
combined first and second reviews of the authorities’ economic program
supported by the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF).
At the end of the mission, Mr. Turunen issued the following statement:
“The Nepali authorities and IMF staff conducted discussions for the 2023
Article IV consultations and reached staff-level agreement on the policies
and reforms needed to complete the combined first and second reviews under
the ECF (see
Press Release No. 22/6
).
[1]
The agreement is subject to approval by the Executive Board. Completion
would make available SDR 39.20 million (about US$52.2million), bringing
total disbursements under the ECF thus far to SDR 117.70 million (about
US$156.6million), from a total of SDR 282.42 million (about US$375.8
million).
“Despite a challenging global and domestic environment last year, including
the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Nepal continued to make progress
with the implementation of the ECF-supported program. Notable achievements
include the external audit of the Nepal Rastra Bank with the assistance of
international auditors – in line with international best practices,
publication of reports on both COVID-related spending and custom exemptions
to enhance transparency, drafting of amendments to bank asset
classification regulations, and strengthening bank supervision by launching
the donor-supported Supervision Information System. IMF staff welcomed the
progress made towards implementing other structural reforms in the
authorities’ policy agenda and discussed priorities looking forward.
“The Nepali authorities have taken decisive actions to maintain a stable
macroeconomic environment. The much-needed monetary policy tightening last
year, together with the gradual unwinding of COVID support measures, helped
moderate credit growth and contributed to the moderation of inflation
stemming from the global commodity price shock caused by the Ukraine war.
As a result, and in a context of resilient remittances, external pressures
eased, and international reserves stabilized in the first half of
FY2022/23. The temporary import restrictions, mostly aimed at reducing the
rapid post-pandemic growth of imports, were removed. The slowdown in
imports nevertheless dampened tax collections during the first half of
FY2022/2023, which has required expenditure rationalization in the mid-year
budget review to preserve fiscal discipline and debt sustainability. Bank
asset quality has deteriorated, reflecting a decline in the repayment
capacity of borrowers due to higher lending rates and rising leverage, a
concern that is moderated by banks’ capital-adequacy ratios that are above
the regulatory minima.
“Real GDP growth is projected to soften to 4.4 percent in FY2022/23, but is
supported by the ongoing recovery of tourism, strong agriculture sector
performance in the first half of the year and resilient remittances.
However, the global outlook remains subject to an unusually high level of
uncertainty. Nepal remains vulnerable to shocks, from volatile and higher
global commodity prices and from natural disasters and weather variability.
Accordingly, cautious monetary policy remains appropriate to bring the
still elevated inflation down towards the Nepal Rastra Bank’s 7 percent
target and to allow the economy to grow without placing undue pressure on
international reserves.
The government further aims to address near-term fiscal pressure by
rationalizing expenditure
. Discussions recognized the need to protect high-quality infrastructure
expenditure and social spending.
“Nepal remains committed to the policies and reforms envisaged in the
ECF-supported program, in particular, (i) formulating a comprehensive
revenue mobilization strategy, aimed at enhancing tax collection and making
room for priority spending; (ii) strengthening the management of fiscal
risks, especially those arising from public enterprises, by developing
systems for their prompt identification and monitoring; (iii) improving
efficiency and transparency of public investment spending; (iv) continuing
to advance reforms on banking regulations and supervision and ensuring bank
asset quality; and (v) further strengthening NRB’s governance by amending
the NRB Act in line with best international practices. In addition, Nepal
remains committed to implementing recommendations from the ongoing AML/CFT
Mutual Evaluation conducted by the Asia/Pacific Group.
“The ECF-supported program will help Nepal’s economy to remain on a
sustainable path over the medium term with the economy projected to grow at
around 5 percent and inflation at around 6 percent, while maintaining
adequate levels of international reserves and keeping public debt at a
sustainable level. The authorities and IMF staff agreed that priority
should be given to achieving a fiscal deficit that ensures debt sustainability, while securing
additional concessional financing and enhancing debt management
. Monetary policy should focus on maintaining a cautious and data-driven
stance supported by macroprudential measures. This will help avoid large
boom-bust credit cycles, which can create financial sector instability and
are not supportive of sustainable growth. Discussions recognized the need
for the Nepal Rastra Bank to ensure appropriate reclassification of loans
and close monitoring of the impact of a potential deterioration in
repayment capacity of borrowers.
“Discussions also covered the need for Nepal to adopt an ambitious
structural reform agenda to help establish a sustainable and inclusive
long-term growth path. Reducing the cost of doing business and barriers to
FDI would support growth potential especially in sectors such as high-value
agricultural products, information technology, energy, and tourism. Reforms
to develop financial instruments tailored to migrant workers, promoting
better access to finance and improving financial literacy can enhance
financial inclusion. Further progress with digitalization and strengthening
of anti-corruption institutions would improve provision of public goods.
Better-targeted social assistance, investing in resilient infrastructure
and boosting agricultural productivity are key to reducing poverty, and
addressing Nepal’s vulnerability to food security risks related to climate
change and natural disasters. Enhanced transparency and financial oversight
of public enterprises can reduce fiscal risks while promoting their
operational efficiency.
“The IMF team is grateful to the Nepali authorities for their hospitality
and for open and constructive discussions. The team met with the Right
Honorable Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Honorable Deputy Prime
Minister and Minister of Finance Mr. Bishnu Prasad Paudel, Nepal Rastra
Bank Governor Mr. Maha Prasad Adhikari, National Planning Commission
Vice-Chairman Dr. Min Bahadur Shrestha, other senior government and NRB
officials, development partners and representatives of the business
community.”
[1]
The Extended Credit Facility (ECF) provides financial assistance to
countries with protracted balance of payments problems. It supports
countries’ economic programs aimed at moving toward a stable and
sustainable macroeconomic position consistent with strong and
durable poverty reduction and growth. The ECF is expected to help
catalyze additional foreign aid.