Washington, DC: The
Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed today
the second review of the 38-month
Extended Credit Facility
(ECF) Arrangement for Zambia. The completion of the second review of the
ECF arrangement allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 139.88 million
(about US$187 million), bringing Zambia’s total disbursement under the ECF
to SDR 419.64 million (about US$561 million).
Zambia’s
ECF Arrangement
was adopted on August 31, 2022, for a total of SDR978.2 million (100
percent of quota, about US$1.3 billion). It supports Zambia’s homegrown 8
th National Development Plan that seeks to entrench
macroeconomic stability, attain debt and fiscal sustainability, foster
inclusive growth, and improve the livelihood of the Zambian people,
especially the vulnerable (see
Press Release No: 22/297
).
The Zambian authorities
agreed
on a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Official Creditor Committee
(OCC) on October 14, 2023, that reflects the
June 2023 debt treatment agreement,
in line with the IMF program parameters. The authorities remain committed
to reaching an agreement with private external creditors that respects the
comparability of treatment (CoT) requirements as defined by the OCC and is
consistent with IMF program parameters.
Program performance has been satisfactory despite a challenging domestic
and global environment. All but one quantitative performance criteria for
the second review were met. The authorities requested a waiver of
nonobservance for missing the end-June 2023 net international reserve
target as they have put in place corrective measures. Four out of seven
structural benchmarks were met, with two others completed with minor
delays.
Economic performance has proven resilient despite recurrent shocks and
delays in debt restructuring. Growth was revised upwards to 4.3 percent in
2023 thanks to strong performance in the non-agricultural and non-mining
sectors, despite weakened mining production. The authorities continue
taking steps to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, raise and safeguard
social spending, preserve financial stability, and intensify structural and
governance reforms to unlock Zambia’s growth potential.
Following the Executive Board discussion on Zambia, Ms. Antoinette Sayeh,
Deputy Managing Director and acting chair, issued the following statement:
“The authorities have maintained their efforts to stabilize the economy
despite recurrent external shocks. Continuing to take measures to restore
fiscal and debt sustainability, including advancing with the debt
restructuring, and implementing reforms are critical to safeguard
macroeconomic stability and foster durable and inclusive growth.
“Zambia’s performance under its Fund-supported program has remained
satisfactory, including continued fiscal consolidation—despite lower mining
revenues—and structural reform implementation. Sustaining the fiscal
consolidation remains crucial. In particular, scaling up efforts to
mobilize revenues, including by broadening the tax base and removing
exemptions, would help preserve social spending, clear domestic arrears,
and address development needs. Public financial management reforms are
critical to enhance budget execution and the quality of government
spending. The authorities are also making efforts to enhance governance and
transparency in public debt management.
“The agreed memorandum of understanding (MoU) with official bilateral
creditors, formalizing the agreement on a debt treatment consistent with
the program’s parameters reached in June 2023, and the authorities’ good
faith efforts with private creditors to reach an agreement consistent with
the program’s parameters and comparability of treatment (as defined by the
Official Creditor Committee) are welcome. Prompt implementation of the MoU,
together with reaching agreement with private creditors on comparable terms
and in line with the program’s parameters, is critical to restore debt
sustainability over the medium term.
“The Bank of Zambia stands ready to tighten monetary policy further to
ensure that inflation falls within the monetary policy band. The central
bank is also committed to maintaining exchange rate flexibility and to step
up the pace of reserve accumulation to strengthen external resilience. The
authorities’ financial sector reforms will help promote financial stability
and inclusion.
“Governance and structural reforms are key to promoting private sector
development and economic diversification. Efforts to enhance procurement,
disclose beneficiary ownership, enhance access to public information, and
combat corruption will provide a more conducive environment for private
investment and inclusive growth. The authorities also plan to integrate
climate mitigation and adaptation strategies into national policies.”
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Zambia: Selected Economic Indicators, 2021–25
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|
|
2021
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2022
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2023
|
2024
|
2025
|
|
|
|
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
|
Output
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real GDP growth (%)
|
6.2
|
5.2
|
4.3
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Prices
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Inflation annual average (%)
|
22.0
|
11.0
|
11.0
|
11.4
|
7.8
|
|
Inflation end-of-year (%)
|
16.4
|
9.9
|
13.0
|
8.6
|
7.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Central government finances
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue (% GDP)
|
22.4
|
20.4
|
20.9
|
21.2
|
21.9
|
|
Expenditure (% GDP)
|
30.5
|
28.2
|
27.7
|
27.4
|
27.3
|
|
Fiscal balance (cash basis, %
GDP)
|
-8.1
|
-7.8
|
-6.8
|
-6.1
|
-5.4
|
|
Fiscal balance (commitment
basis, % GDP)
|
-13.9
|
-5.4
|
-6.4
|
-3.8
|
-3.3
|
|
Public debt (% GDP)
|
112.1
|
110.9
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Money and Credit
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Broad money (% change)
|
3.7
|
24.5
|
18.4
|
15.6
|
13.0
|
|
Credit to private sector (%
change)
|
-7.8
|
34.2
|
31.4
|
26.8
|
22.6
|
|
3-month Treasury bill interest
rate(%)
|
12.8
|
9.6
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Balance of payments
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Current account (% GDP)
|
9.7
|
3.7
|
-1.8
|
3.7
|
5.2
|
|
FDI (% GDP)
|
3.1
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
2.0
|
2.9
|
|
Reserves (in months of imports)
|
3.3
|
3.4
|
3.4
|
4.0
|
5.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exchange rate
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
REER (% change)
|
5.0
|
30.3
|
…
|
…
|
…
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Sources Zambian authorities, and IMF Staff estimates
and projections.
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