Mission Concluding Statement 

Norway’s economy has shown resilience amid global uncertainty, supported by strong fiscal buffers and credible policy frameworks. Mainland real GDP growth is forecast to increase to 1.5 percent in 2025 (from 0.6 percent in 2024) and is projected to remain steady at around that level over the medium term. The labor market has held firm. Despite contractionary monetary policy, inflation remains above target; bringing inflation back to target is the most pressing near-term policy priority. The financial system is sound, and buffers are robust, but systemic vulnerabilities remain elevated, reflecting high levels of household debt and concentrated exposures to real estate. At the same time, macroprudential policy settings have been eased with the increase in the loan-to-value limit for mortgages earlier this year. Risks to the growth outlook are to the downside, driven by rising global policy and trade uncertainty; risks to the inflation outlook are balanced. The IMF staff’s main policy recommendations are: i) maintain the restrictive monetary policy stance until there is additional evidence that the recent easing of inflation has fully solidified; ii) do not ease macroprudential policy settings further, as financial stability risks could increase if downside risks to growth or upside risks to inflation materialize; iii) move towards a broadly neutral fiscal stance to enhance the coherence of the macroeconomic policy mix and lower the burden on monetary policy; and iv) continue advancing structural reforms aimed at increasing labor supply and inclusion.

Context

Norway’s economy has remained resilient despite tight financial conditions and ongoing global uncertainty. GDP continued to expand moderately last year, supported by high employment and supportive fiscal policy. Inflation has declined, though it remains above target, and financial stability risks, while elevated due to high household debt levels and concentrated exposures to the real estate sector, remain contained.

Recent developments, outlook, and risks

Economic activity strengthened in 2024. Overall real GDP grew by 2.1 percent, driven by record-high natural gas extraction. Mainland GDP expanded by 0.6 percent, primarily due to increased public spending, as activity in the construction and fishing sectors contracted, reflecting high borrowing costs and sector-specific challenges. Employment and hours worked increased, although the unemployment rate edged up to 4 percent. National accounts data and high frequency survey indicators point to resilient activity in the first part of 2025. Mainland GDP growth is forecast to rise to 1.5 percent in 2025, supported by easing financial conditions, an expansionary fiscal stance, and recovering real incomes. Over the medium-term, mainland GDP growth is expected to remain around its potential (1.5 percent).

Inflation, despite a steady decline, remains above target. Services inflation and wage pressures have contributed to keeping inflation above the 2 percent target. However, recent developments point to slower-than-expected momentum in both headline and core inflation, partly due to one-off and base effects. Fiscal measures—such as those to stabilize electricity prices and reduce childcare costs—could lower inflation in the second half of the year. Under staff’s baseline scenario, headline and core inflation will fall to 2.2 and 2.6 percent by end-2025 and return to target by 2027. After holding the policy rate steady at 4.5 percent from January 2024, Norges Bank began normalizing monetary policy by lowering the rate to 4.25 percent in June and signaled that the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.

The fiscal stance has become increasingly expansionary. While additional support to Ukraine in the revised budget is not expected to provide stimulus to the economy, overall, the 2025 budget implies a significant fiscal impulse. The structural non-oil deficit is projected to reach about 13 percent of trend mainland GDP, even as withdrawals from the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) are expected to remain below the fiscal rule’s 3 percent guideline (at around 2.7 percent of the GPFG’s 2024 market value). The government has also signaled alignment with NATO discussions to progressively increase defense spending toward 5 percent of GDP over the medium term.

Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside, while inflation risks are balanced. On growth, global tensions, including higher trade tariffs, could weigh on exports and investment, and continued tight financial conditions could further pressure highly indebted households and firms at a time when financial risks are elevated. Over the longer term, demographic headwinds and the expected structural erosion of oil-related revenues will weigh on economic resilience. Inflation could take longer to converge to target if domestic demand recovers faster than expected or higher oil prices put pressure on headline inflation. By contrast, further currency appreciation and higher productivity gains (e.g., from a faster-than-anticipated uptake of AI or automation) could bring inflation back to target more rapidly.   

Policy recommendations

Norges Bank should proceed cautiously with monetary policy normalization, ensuring there is further evidence that underlying inflation is firmly on a path back to target. Under staff’s baseline scenario, the current restrictive monetary policy is broadly appropriate to bring core inflation to target by 2027, even as medium-term inflation expectations and underlying inflation remain above target. The output gap is broadly closed, and inflation risks are balanced. While recent inflation developments are encouraging, further evidence of a decline in the trend of underlying inflation is needed to continue with the normalization of monetary policy.

Norway’s strong monetary policy framework has served the economy well. After the adoption of inflation targeting in 2001, Norges Bank has operated with a high level of credibility and ranks among the most transparent central banks in the world. However, the current highly uncertain global outlook can present challenges for monetary policy formulation and implementation. Navigating rapidly evolving global developments and volatile data may require enhancements to the policy process. This could include expanding the use of scenario analysis—an approach Norges Bank has employed in the past—and refining communication strategies to maintain well-anchored expectations.

The recent relaxation of the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for mortgages could increase financial vulnerabilities. Although households’ debt burden has stabilized, it remains high. A higher LTV limit may fuel further increases in house prices and household indebtedness, contributing to higher financial stability risks, particularly if downside risks to growth or upside risks to inflation materialize. Lasting improvements in housing affordability will require structural measures to address factors that keep prices elevated, including a relatively small rental market, limited land availability in urban areas, high construction costs, and a tax system that encourages mortgage debt. Gradually phasing-out mortgage interest deductibility (starting with a cap on income-tax deductions) would help curb speculative housing demand and enhance tax efficiency. Tightening eligibility for subsidized mortgages would also help manage housing demand and public spending.

The financial system is sound with strong buffers, but further macroprudential easing should wait until systemic risks recede or financial disintermediation risks emerge. Continued close financial system monitoring is essential. Participation in the initiative to undertake a Nordic-Baltic regional stress test exercise would enhance the assessment of cross-border financial interlinkages and risks. Measures to address increased bank reliance on covered bonds are also welcome and would help mitigate interconnectedness risks. The current countercyclical capital buffer setting remains appropriate, but Norges Bank should be prepared to raise it if cyclical vulnerabilities increase. Priority should be given to preserving capital buffers, including by ensuring that banks’ models properly reflect credit risks and to strengthening contingency planning amid continued pressure on the commercial real estate (CRE) sector. Over the medium term, broadening the toolkit for CRE vulnerabilities could help address these in a more targeted manner during future upswings, and borrower-based-measures on CRE lending, as well as sector-specific capital surcharges to address risks from the insurance sector’s CRE exposures could be considered. Work to address the findings of the 2024 Nordic-Baltic crisis management exercise and the 2020 FSAP recommendations should continue.

Moving towards a broadly neutral fiscal policy stance would support the disinflation effort and improve the coherence of the overall macroeconomic policy mix. The 2025 budget further expands the fiscal stimulus, with an estimated fiscal impulse of about 2.5 percent of trend mainland GDP. While the impact on domestic activity may be dampened by the composition of spending (including through imports and transfers abroad), the stimulus is still expected to provide a significant boost to the domestic economy.

Enhancements to Norway’s robust fiscal framework would help ensure continued delivery of strong economic and social outcomes. Reinforcing countercyclicality and spending discipline would enhance fiscal resilience. Complementing the fiscal rule with explicit medium-term expenditure limits could reduce exposure to volatility from market-driven changes in the large and growing value of the GPFG and improve fiscal planning. Strengthening multi-year budgeting, improving public investment management, conducting more systematic spending reviews and setting efficiency targets would support more strategic resource allocation and enhance public service delivery. Benchmarking the setup of the Advisory Panel on Fiscal Policy Analysis against best international practices for independent fiscal councils and expanding its mandate would help further enhance the fiscal framework.

Advancing fiscal reforms is essential to bolster resilience and support long-term growth. Tax reforms aimed at improving efficiency and broadening the revenue base remain a priority. Consolidating multiple VAT rates and enhancing incentives for work and investment would improve resilience of the tax system. Further measures to reform disability and sickness benefits, along the lines of past IMF recommendations, are needed to reduce work disincentives, increase labor force participation, and contain long-term fiscal costs. Sustained reform efforts are crucial to ensure long-term sustainability of fiscal policy in the face of rising structural spending pressures.

A broad and ambitious reform agenda is essential to accelerate productivity growth and mitigate the effects of geoeconomic fragmentation. Advancing the “reinforced work line” agenda would reduce reliance on disability benefits, raise labor force participation among underrepresented groups—including youth and immigrants—and increase total hours worked. Strengthening education-to-work transitions, promoting full-time employment, and accelerating digitalization would further support productivity. Finally, further measures are likely to be needed to achieve Norway’s 2035 emission reduction targets.

The IMF team thanks the Norwegian authorities and other counterparts for their hospitality and the constructive and insightful discussions.