Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, November 13, 2025
IMF News, November 14, 2025
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- Published: November 14, 2025
Announcements and logistics
- Press Briefing embargoed until 11 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
- Managing Director travel:
- Visit to Angola: November 19th through 21st (meetings with authorities, business community, and students).
- Attendance at the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa: November 22nd and 23rd (high-level discussions and bilaterals).
- Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz visiting Germany, Belgium, and France during the week of the briefing.
- IMF Press Center is a password-protected site for working journalists.
- Media contacts provided: Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org.
Ukraine: restructuring, program negotiations, governance
- Mission timing and focus:
- A mission to discuss a potential new IMF program for Ukraine is expected to begin soon.
- Discussions will focus on policies to safeguard macroeconomic stability, ensure debt sustainability, and advance structural policies, including domestic revenue mobilization and measures to strengthen governance and combat corruption.
- Financing framework for a potential program:
- Two components: domestic efforts (domestic revenue mobilization, tapping local markets, expenditure control, credible 2026 budget) and international support (amount and terms consistent with debt sustainability).
- No precise numbers on the financing gap were provided because discussions are ongoing.
- Debt restructuring and warrants:
- IMF will assess any debt restructuring within its debt sustainability analysis conducted during program design and reviews; the IMF is not a party to creditor negotiations but will incorporate available information into its assessment.
- Anti-corruption and governance:
- Robust anti-corruption architecture and safeguarding the independence and operability of anti-corruption institutions are central priorities.
- Recent evidence of corruption in the energy sector underscores the need to press forward with anti-corruption efforts and ensure capacity, trust, and freedom for relevant institutions.
- MD visit:
- Question asked whether the Managing Director still plans to visit Ukraine; no new date provided in the briefing.
Senegal: hidden debt, program discussions, debt sustainability
- Recent engagement:
- IMF mission to Dakar: October 22 to November 6; mission advanced talks on a new program request, debt management, and fiscal transparency.
- Debt vulnerabilities and transparency:
- Public debt level cited as 132 percent of GDP.
- IMF commended authorities for disclosing hidden debt and emphasized this as an important step.
- Staff and authorities discussed significant debt vulnerabilities and options to address them; specific debt operations or restructuring decisions are sovereign.
- Ongoing IMF work and approach:
- IMF and World Bank are working jointly to finalize an updated debt sustainability analysis reflecting revised data and macro assumptions.
- IMF staff and management will propose an approach for the misreporting case involving measures agreed with Senegalese authorities to address root causes of hidden debt and macro vulnerabilities.
- As part of that process, staff and management would not request early repayment of Senegal's obligations to the IMF (subject to formal approval by the IMF Executive Board).
- Fiscal and revenue reforms:
- IMF noted the need for caution in macro frameworks when countries implement ambitious tax or revenue plans, to allow time for measures to take effect.
- Market movements:
- IMF did not comment on recent bond market movements.
Argentina: reserve target, swaps, macro outlook, program context
- Swap lines and reserves:
- Questions raised about a 20 billion currency swap agreement with the United States and whether it counts toward Argentina's net international reserves and program targets.
- IMF described such bilateral support as bilateral matters between the U.S. and Argentine authorities and as complementing the Fund-supported program; no definitive statement that the swap counts toward program reserves was given.
- A referenced reserve accumulation target of $9 billion was quoted from the Economy Minister; IMF said it would be premature to comment on whether targets will be met.
- Macroeconomic assessment and forecasts:
- Annual inflation declined from triple digits last year to around 30 percent in September.
- IMF forecast for Argentina: growth of 4.5 percent in 2025 (following a contraction in 2024).
- Sectoral strengths: energy, mining, and agricultural sectors supporting activity and poverty reduction trends.
- Policy recommendations and risks:
- Need to accelerate reserve accumulation, maintain consistent and robust monetary and FX framework, and pursue planned structural reforms (including tax and labor reforms) to support fiscal sustainability and private sector-led growth.
- U.S. financial support has helped stabilize markets; IMF views it as reinforcing Argentina's reform and stabilization objectives.
- FX regime:
- Choice of FX regime is for country authorities; IMF emphasizes consistency with strengthening international reserves, external stability, and sustainable growth.
- Other program questions:
- IMF remains engaged in supporting Argentina’s stabilization and reform efforts; specific financing assurances and the treatment of bilateral swaps as program financing were described as bilateral and program-specific matters.
Japan: monetary policy and inflation outlook
- Growth and inflation projections:
- IMF expects growth to strengthen with inflation converging to the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target by 2027 (consistent with October WEO projections).
- Growth projection: acceleration from 0.1 percent in 2024 to 1.1 percent in 2025.
- Moderation in commodity prices expected to help headline and core inflation converge toward 2 percent.
- Policy stance:
- IMF supports the Bank of Japan's recent monetary policy decisions; monetary policy remains appropriately accommodative.
- Recommendation for a data-dependent and flexible approach given high uncertainty.
United States: shutdown effects, Article IV, growth, inflation, AI and crypto
- Government shutdown and data impacts:
- The U.S. government shutdown ended; the shutdown delayed preparatory work for the Article IV consultation originally scheduled for November. The Article IV discussions were delayed and a new date has not yet been set.
- Missing or delayed data (e.g., October jobs report lacking a jobless rate) complicated IMF assessment and Article IV preparations.
- Growth outlook and WEO reference:
- October WEO anticipated Q4-over-Q4 growth would slow from 2.5 percent (previous year) to 1.9 percent in 2025; the shutdown was expected to reduce Q4 2025 growth outturn relative to prior expectations but not necessarily produce negative growth.
- IMF expects some rebound in Q1 2026 consistent with historical patterns after shutdowns.
- IMF will reassess and incorporate effects into upcoming forecasts, including the January WEO.
- Inflation and Fed policy:
- IMF assessment: inflation is on a path toward the Fed's 2 percent target, but upside risks to inflation exist largely as a result of tariffs.
- Fed faces a balance between downside risks to the labor market (slowing job growth) and upside inflation risks; careful calibration of policy is needed.
- Inflation expectations in advanced economies, including the U.S., remain generally well anchored.
- Spillovers:
- No major spillovers from the U.S. shutdown observed at the time of the briefing; IMF will continue to assess spillovers for the January WEO.
- AI and crypto:
- IMF is analyzing AI's macroeconomic implications; preliminary analysis suggests AI could have an impact on 40 percent of jobs globally (impact not necessarily negative; may raise productivity).
- IMF is monitoring digital assets: unbacked crypto assets, stablecoins, tokenized assets, and Central Bank digital currencies. Potential benefits include more efficient payments and broader financial inclusion; risks include financial stability, consumer/investor protection, and market integrity. IMF works with members to mitigate risks.
G20: role and debt agenda
- G20 relevance:
- G20 continues to provide an important platform for international engagement and pooling expertise to address shared problems.
- U.S. participation: U.S. did participate in the October Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting; the G20 delivered a joint ministerial declaration on debt at that meeting.
- Debt will remain a G20 priority under the upcoming U.S. G20 presidency.
- Ukraine financing:
- IMF teams will liaise with Ukraine's international partners to identify appropriate financing vehicles for Ukraine that are consistent with debt sustainability.
Sri Lanka: program review, budget, and reform priorities
- Program status:
- IMF staff and Sri Lankan authorities reached a Staff-Level Arrangement on the Fifth Review of Sri Lanka's EFF arrangement on October 9.
- Upon IMF Executive Board approval of the review, Sri Lanka will have access to about U.S. $347 million in financing.
- Board meeting expected in the coming weeks.
- Budget and growth targets:
- Government introduced a budget with an ambitious target of 7 percent for 2026; IMF staff are reviewing published budget documents to evaluate consistency with program parameters.
- Structural reform priorities:
- Liberalize trade and related reforms; improve and streamline regulations around FDI.
- Speed up implementation of governance reforms (including procurement reform and strengthening the AML/CFT framework).
- Protect the vulnerable and consider deepening the Welfare Benefit Payments scheme to support social protection.
Egypt: mission timing, divestment, reserves, and governance
- Mission timing:
- Mission for the Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the EFF and the First Review under the RSF is scheduled to take place in Cairo in early December.
- Macroeconomic context:
- Macroeconomic outlook improving: growth strengthening and inflation easing since the beginning of the year; fiscal discipline being preserved.
- Ongoing vulnerabilities: low tax-to-GDP ratio, elevated debt, high gross financing needs, energy-related fiscal risks, and a strong state footprint.
- Steps taken:
- Establishing institutional framework for divestment of state assets.
- Independent assessment of corporate and risk governance frameworks for state-owned banks.
- Working to step up debt management efforts as the financing outlook improves.
- Qatar investment and audits:
- Qatar-Egypt deal is a bilateral arrangement between authorities; IMF underscores that proceeds from divestments should contribute to strengthening international reserves and reducing public debt to bolster economic stability.
- IMF did not provide explicit confirmation that $3.5 billion investment or any specific audit is a formal prerequisite for reviews; IMF staff are reviewing governance assessments as part of program work.
Syria: engagement, mission, and next steps toward Article IV
- Recent engagement:
- Managing Director met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington; discussions focused on Syria's economic challenges and IMF support.
- IMF mission visited Damascus the week of the briefing to discuss authorities' economic reform priorities and technical assistance needs.
- Immediate IMF focus:
- Policy advice, capacity development, and technical assistance aimed at rebuilding economic institutions (Finance Ministry, Central Bank, Statistical Commission).
- Path to Article IV:
- A 15-year halt in Article IV Consultations since 2009; IMF will work with authorities on a pathway to undertaking an Article IV consultation when conditions permit.
Jamaica and Hurricane Melissa: readiness and IMF support
- Humanitarian and economic response:
- IMF expressed condolences to affected countries, notably Jamaica and Haiti.
- IMF closely monitoring developments and coordinating with country authorities, international institutions, and partners.
- Jamaica-specific assessment:
- Preliminary assessment: Jamaica has buffers to finance immediate disaster-related spending needs, a strong fiscal and external position, and a comprehensive multi-layered risk financing framework (domestic and external instruments).
- Authorities have not expressed interest in IMF financial support; IMF stands ready to provide policy advice, technical assistance, liaison with partners, macro-framework assessment, or financial support if requested.
Closing procedural notes
- Transcript to be made available later on IMF.org.
- For unanswered questions, media were invited to contact media@imf.org or use the Press Center for bilateral follow-up.
- Reminder: Press Briefing embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
Source: Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, November 13, 2025.