IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Cambodia

IMF News, November 25, 2025

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Published: November 25, 2025

Growth outlook and inflation

Growth is projected to decelerate to 4.8 percent in 2025 and 4.0 percent in 2026, reflecting export volatility, declining remittances, a slowdown in tourism, and weak domestic demand.
Cambodia’s economy continued to accelerate in 2024, and growth reached 6.0 percent; nowcasting estimates pointed to year-on-year growth of 6.2 percent in the first half of 2025.
The downward revision from the 2024 Article IV staff report reflects remittance losses and a tourism slowdown, which are expected to weigh on domestic demand. Tariff effects will lower export earnings as manufacturers face margin pressures.
Inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2025 before easing in 2026.
Signs of economic slowdown are emerging in the second half of 2025 following trade disruptions, border tensions, and anemic credit growth.

Risks

Risks are tilted to the downside, with financial sector vulnerabilities at the center.
Specific downside risks highlighted:
- Trade policy uncertainty could further disrupt export growth.
- Renewed border tensions could undermine confidence, amplifying adverse effects on domestic demand, tourism, and financial sector stability.
- Elevated private debt, rising NPLs, and governance vulnerabilities could further amplify risks to financial stability.
Upside scenarios:
- Deeper regional trade and investment integration could promote export growth.
- Successful reintegration of returned workers into the domestic labor market could support a stronger recovery in domestic demand.

Policy recommendations and priorities

Fiscal policy:
- Cushion the impact of current shocks while preserving fiscal prudence.
- Provide temporary and targeted support for vulnerable households and displaced workers, alongside active labor market policies.
- Over the medium term, pursue gradual, growth‑friendly consolidation to rebuild buffers and maintain fiscal sustainability.
- Prioritize revenue mobilization and efforts to improve expenditure efficiency and infrastructure governance.
Monetary policy:
- Remain agile and responsive to evolving conditions.
- Gradually proceed with normalization, including restoring reserve requirements to pre‑pandemic levels.
- Continue efforts to strengthen monetary transmission in Khmer Riel and improve liquidity management.
- Emphasize transparent communication to enhance policy credibility.
Financial sector:
- Focus on managing rising risks and reinforcing oversight.
- Phase‑out of forbearance by end‑2025 to enable timely recognition of distressed assets and recapitalization.
- Enhance supervisory capacity, including asset quality reporting, stress testing, and early intervention.
- Reform insolvency and crisis management frameworks, establish a deposit insurance scheme, and address AML/CFT vulnerabilities.
Structural and governance reforms:
- Accelerate structural reforms to diversify exports, enhance productivity and competitiveness, and improve trade facilitation.
- Advance governance reforms to enhance the business environment, bolster investor confidence, and ensure sustainable and inclusive development.
- Continue efforts to address data limitations.

Executive Board Assessment

Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal.
While Cambodia’s economy grew strongly in 2024, the recovery remains uneven and is decelerating, impacted by subdued domestic demand, border tensions, trade disruptions, and a real estate correction.
Directors cautioned that risks are tilted to the downside and that Cambodia’s growth model remains vulnerable due to reliance on a narrow export base.
Directors urged comprehensive and well‑coordinated implementation of fiscal, monetary and structural policies to safeguard macroeconomic stability and enhance resilience.

Key statistics and projections (selected)

Per capita GDP (2023, US$): 2,477
Life expectancy (2022, years): 70.0
Population (2023, million): 17.1
Literacy rate (2022, percent): 83.8

Selected annual percent changes and levels:

GDP in constant prices: 5.1 (2022), 5.0 (2023), 6.0 (2024), 4.8 (2025), 4.0 (2026)
Inflation (end-year): 2.9 (2022), 2.7 (2023), 3.0 (2024), 1.0 (2025), 2.2 (2026)
Inflation (Annual average): 5.3 (2022), 2.1 (2023), 0.9 (2024), 2.5 (2025), 2.3 (2026)
Gross national saving (in percent of GDP): 15.9 (2022), 34.6 (2023), 32.7 (2024), 30.5 (2025), 28.0 (2026)
Gross fixed investment (in percent of GDP): 35.3 (2022), 33.3 (2023), 32.2 (2024), 33.5 (2025), 32.6 (2026)
Broad money (annual percent change): 8.2 (2022), 12.5 (2023), 17.5 (2024), 8.7 (2025)
Private sector credit (annual percent change): 18.5 (2022), 3.5 (2023), 3.1 (2024), 3.2 (2025)
Revenue (in percent of GDP): 18.4 (2022), 16.2 (2023), 15.2 (2024), 14.6 (2025), 14.4 (2026)
Expenditure (in percent of GDP): 18.7 (2022), 19.1 (2023), 17.3 (2024), 18.3 (2025), 18.2 (2026)
Net lending (+)/borrowing(-): -0.3 (2022), -2.8 (2023), -2.1 (2024), -3.7 (2025), -3.8 (2026)
Total public debt (in percent of GDP): 25.5 (2022), 26.3 (2023), 26.1 (2024), 26.5 (2025), 27.2 (2026)

Balance of payments and external sector (selected):

Exports, f.o.b. (in millions of dollars): 23,175 (2022), 23,569 (2023), 26,752 (2024), 30,297 (2025), 31,571 (2026)
Imports, f.o.b. (in millions of dollars): -31,995 (2022), -26,553 (2023), -31,247 (2024), -35,556 (2025), -37,092 (2026)
Current account (including official transfers, in millions of dollars): -7,572 (2022), 554 (2023), 229 (2024), -1,474 (2025), -2,372 (2026)
Gross official reserves (in millions of dollars): 17,805 (2022), 19,998 (2023), 22,511 (2024), 23,511 (2025), 26,059 (2026)
Gross official reserves (in months of prospective imports): 7.3 (2022), 7.0 (2023), 6.8 (2024), 6.9 (2025), 7.1 (2026)
Total public debt (in millions of dollars): 9,971 (2022), 11,188 (2023), 12,028 (2024), 13,042 (2025), 14,192 (2026)
Public external debt (in percent of GDP): 25.9, 26.2, 26.7 (years not separately labeled in table)
Public debt service (in millions of dollars): 420 (2022), 442 (2023), 449 (2024), 637 (2025), 735 (2026)
Public debt service (In percent of exports of goods and services): 1.6, 1.4, 2.0 (years not separately labeled in table)

Memorandum items:

Nominal GDP (in billions of Riels): 160,972 (2022), 174,027 (2023), 188,766 (2024), 201,830 (2025), 213,914 (2026)
Nominal GDP (In millions of U.S. dollars): 39,089 (2022), 42,404 (2023), 46,098 (2024), 49,200 (2025), 52,146 (2026)

Source: IMF Executive Board conclusion and staff report for the 2025 Article IV Consultation with Cambodia (Press Release No. 25/394, November 25, 2025).