Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, December 4, 2025
IMF News, December 5, 2025
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- Published: December 5, 2025
Announcements and schedules
- Managing Director will visit China next week:
- December 8th: participate in the opening ceremony of the IMF Shanghai Center.
- December 9th: attend the China “1+10” dialogue in Beijing.
- December 10th: speak at the 2025 China Article IV press conference.
- Managing Director and First Deputy Managing Director Katz: brief stop in London on December 12th to discuss coordination with the Financial Stability Board and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
- December 14th–15th: Managing Director will be in Rome to attend the 18th Ambassadors Conference organized by Italy's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.
- First Deputy Managing Director Katz: in Asia this week (Article IV discussions in China earlier this week); currently in Japan until tomorrow for bilateral meetings.
- Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clark: visiting Ethiopia this week to discuss IMF support for reform agenda.
- Deputy Managing Director Bo Li: in Doha, Qatar on December 6th and 7th to participate in the Doha Forum.
- IMF released a new departmental paper, “Understanding Stablecoins,” covering market developments, use cases, benefits, risks, and the international regulatory landscape; IMF and FSB have issued comprehensive policy recommendations on stablecoins.
Ukraine — program status, financing, and governance expectations
- Staff–Level Agreement reached on November 26 on a new four-year EFF arrangement with potential access of U.S. $8.1 billion; program subject to:
- completion of prior actions,
- receipt of adequate financing assurances from donors,
- approval by the IMF's Executive Board.
- Financing gap estimates:
- Size of the financing gap over the duration of the program: U.S. $136.5 billion.
- Residual financing gap for 2026 into 2027: $63 billion.
- Policy and reform expectations from authorities:
- domestic revenue mobilization,
- tackling economic informality,
- safeguarding independent anti-corruption institutions,
- debt restructuring to restore sustainability.
- National Bank of Ukraine commitments:
- lower inflation,
- allow greater exchange rate flexibility,
- maintain adequate FX reserves.
- Anti-corruption and governance:
- IMF underscores importance of a robust anti-corruption architecture to safeguard public resources, improve business climate, and attract private investment.
- Authorities committed to preserving adequately resourced and independent anti-corruption institutions; reforms to tax and customs services (appoint new customs head, improve IT systems); SOE reforms (improve financial planning, reporting, auditing, and nomination procedures).
- Prior actions discussed beyond the 2026 budget:
- broaden tax base by enacting legislation to tax income earned through digital platforms,
- close customs loopholes for consumer goods imports,
- remove exemptions for VAT registration,
- increase competition in public procurement,
- address loopholes in the current labor code.
- Russian immobilized assets:
- IMF welcomes rigorous discussions in Europe on supporting Ukraine while restoring debt sustainability.
- IMF follows options involving Euroclear's cash balances generated by Russia's immobilized assets while preserving Russia's underlying claim.
- Any action should respect international and domestic law and not undermine the International Monetary System.
- Clarification on IMF resources: intended to provide balance of payments support to help restore growth; not directly linked to repayment of outstanding debts.
Senegal — program talks, hidden debt, and IMF internal review
- Recent IMF mission to Senegal wrapped up on November 6th; discussions advanced talks on a new program request covering macroeconomic trends, policy priorities, and medium-term outcomes.
- Total public debt estimate: 132 percent of GDP at end-2024.
- IMF and Senegalese authorities have made significant progress; negotiations continuing to finalize IMF-supported program and measures to address root causes of hidden debt.
- IMF response to hidden/unreported debt:
- Commendation of authorities for disclosing previously undisclosed liabilities and strengthening fiscal governance and data integrity.
- IMF conducting an internal review focusing on:
- examining data integrity frameworks,
- strengthening internal review processes to detect anomalies,
- enhancing internal staff training.
- Debt operations and restructuring:
- IMF provides expert analysis and advice; choice of specific debt operations remains a sovereign decision for Senegal.
- Discussions have included options to address high public debt vulnerabilities and possible restructuring options.
Guinea-Bissau — program monitoring after political developments
- IMF has an ongoing program; early October staff and authorities reached a Staff–Level Agreement on policies supporting the ninth review under the ECF arrangement.
- IMF is monitoring recent developments (including the coup) and will provide updates as more information becomes available.
Argentina — program implementation, reserves, and policy guidance
- IMF view: substantial progress in strengthening macroeconomic stability; estimate growth of 4.5% this year.
- Policy guidance and reform priorities:
- monetary and FX policies to support a more ambitious reserve accumulation path,
- reforms to improve efficiency and equity of the tax system,
- continued spending controls and reforms (including on subsidies),
- deregulation and labor market flexibility to create a more market-based economy.
- Reserves and program monitoring:
- Meeting end-of-year reserve target will be challenging but remains essential.
- Question of a waiver will be considered during the next review discussions.
- Test date for next assessment: end-December; mission dates to be scheduled after that test date.
- Treatment of swap lines (e.g., U.S.-Argentina swap) will be assessed under IMF framework and disclosed in the next Staff Report.
- Tariff measures and effective tariff rates (U.S. context discussed in briefing relevant to global trade):
- IMF calculates U.S. statutory tariff rate to be between 16 and 18 percent.
- IMF calculates an effective tariff rate (tariff revenue relative to imports) at around 10 percent.
Japan — outlook, fiscal package, and monetary policy
- Growth and inflation outlook:
- Growth: 0.1 percent in 2024; expected to accelerate to 1.1 percent in 2025.
- Inflation expected to converge to the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target by 2027.
- Fiscal package assessment:
- November 20th fiscal package and November 28th supplementary budget: assessed to be smaller than market analysts had expected; impact on next year's deficit will be smaller than initially announced.
- Encouraged that fiscally burdensome proposals were not included.
- Fiscal deficit has been steadily declining; outlook consistent with a declining debt-to-GDP ratio next year.
- Medium-term pressures remain (higher interest payments, aging-related spending, defense spending).
- Monetary policy:
- IMF supportive of Bank of Japan's recent decisions.
- Monetary policy remains appropriately accommodative and should remain flexible and data-dependent amid high uncertainty.
Egypt — mission work on EFF and RSF reviews
- IMF mission on the ground in Cairo to discuss the Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the EFF and the First Review of the RSF.
- Discussions focused on reforms to stabilize the economy and support inclusive growth; findings will be communicated at the end of the mission.
- Specific mission dates to be provided when available.
China — 2025 Article IV mission timing and communications
- Article IV mission in China:
- Mission began on December 1st and will conclude on December 10th.
- Preliminary findings will be presented at a press conference on December 10th; Managing Director to participate.
- IMF encourages U.S.-China dialogue to resolve trade tensions.
Sri Lanka — cyclone impact, mission timing, and support
- IMF condolences expressed for loss of life and damage from the cyclone; IMF engaging with authorities and partners to assess humanitarian, social, and economic toll.
- A rapid post-disaster damage assessment is underway to inform economic impact and program implications.
- Staff–Level Agreement on the Fifth Review was reached in October (pre-cyclone).
- IMF is exploring options to further support Sri Lanka’s recovery under the EFF arrangement; IMF expects a Board meeting on December 15th.
Jamaica — hurricane impact and rapid financing
- Jamaica requested support under the IMF’s large natural disaster window (Rapid Financing Instrument - RFI).
- RFI could amount to up to U.S. $415 million (single disbursement; no conditionality).
- IMF aiming to seek Executive Board approval for the RFI early next year.
- Damage assessment:
- Global rapid post-disaster damage estimation (GRADE), led by the World Bank with partners, estimates physical damage to Jamaica at U.S. $8.8 billion, which is 41 percent of Jamaica's GDP.
- Coordination underway with development partners to assemble a comprehensive package of up to U.S. $6.7 billion over three years to support recovery and reconstruction.
Lebanon — program negotiations, banking sector, and comprehensive reform needs
- Authorities requested an IMF-supported program in March; multiple missions to Beirut have focused on:
- banking sector restructuring strategy,
- 2026 budget,
- medium-term fiscal strategy.
- Progress noted on formulating banking sector strategy but important differences of view remain.
- IMF discussions emphasize:
- protection of small depositors,
- consistency with debt sustainability,
- respect for creditor hierarchy in banking sector restructuring.
- Program requirements: comprehensive approach covering banking sector, fiscal and debt sustainability, state-owned enterprise reform, and governance reforms.
Saudi Arabia — 2026 budget announcement and fiscal recalibration
- IMF projections and assessment:
- Growth projected to accelerate to 4 percent in 2025 and 2026, up from 2 percent in 2024.
- Inflation remains contained; unemployment at record lows; ample external and fiscal buffers.
- 2026 budget and Vision 2030 projects:
- IMF welcomes fiscal recalibration to sequence spending and maintain fiscal and external sustainability.
- Recalibration intended to avoid procyclicality and reduce vulnerability to softer oil prices.
- Comprehensive IMF evaluation of the 2026 budget pending receipt of further details from authorities (likely as part of an Article IV consultation).
Key procedural and operational notes
- Press Briefing embargo: until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
- Transcript to be made available on IMF.org; media follow-up via media@imf.org or the Press Center.
- IMF Communications Department: MEDIA RELATIONS PRESS OFFICER: Eva Graf; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org.
Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, December 4, 2025 — IMF Communications Department