Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, March 19, 2026
IMF News, March 20, 2026
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- Published: March 20, 2026
Announcements and logistics
- Briefing embargoed until 11 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
- First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz travel:
- Currently in Seoul, Republic of Korea, until March 21st.
- Travelling to Beijing, China, from March 21st to 23rd; keynote at China Development Forum on March 22nd.
- 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group: Monday, April 13th, to Saturday, April 18th.
- Curtain Raiser: April 9th at 10 a.m.
- Media contacts: PRESS OFFICER: Fernando Puchol; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org; @IMFSpokesperson.
Global economic impact of the Middle East conflict — IMF overview and key channels
- Immediate disruptions already observed:
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off access to roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and seaborne LNG supplies.
- Energy infrastructure in the Gulf Region and Iran damaged, disrupting oil and gas production.
- Fertilizer shipments and transportation disrupted, raising risks of food price increases.
- Commodity prices and rule-of-thumb impact:
- Oil and gas prices have increased by more than 50 percent over the last month to over $100 a barrel.
- Rule of thumb cited: for every 10 percent increase in the oil price, if it were to persist throughout the rest of this year:
- 40 basis point increase in global headline inflation.
- Fall in global output of between 0.1 and 0.2 percent.
- Critical caveat: these effects assume the price increase is sustained for one year.
- Inflation and second-round effects:
- Prolonged higher energy prices will lead to higher headline inflation.
- Key risks: second-round effects broadening inflation beyond energy and impacts on inflation expectations.
- IMF advice to central banks: remain vigilant; monitor incoming data, second-round inflation effects, and inflation expectations.
- Financial conditions:
- Global stock prices declined; bond yields increased across advanced and emerging markets.
- Volatility has increased; U.S. dollar appreciated; currencies of a number of emerging economies weakened.
- Tighter financial conditions could affect market access for countries that recently re-entered international capital markets.
IMF analytical and reporting plans
- A comprehensive updated assessment to be provided in the World Economic Outlook in April (country-level, regional, and global).
- Scenario analysis and updated Staff Reports (e.g., U.S. Article IV update) to incorporate effects of higher oil and other commodity prices.
IMF engagement and operational response
- Active engagement with membership: finance ministers, central bank governors, and regional institutions.
- IMF tools available: policy advice, capacity development, and financial support as needed.
- Current status of financing requests:
- "Right now, we have not received any formal requests for emergency financing."
- Fund stands ready to provide support and to use the full range of tools.
- Coordination and technical engagement:
- Working toward technical-level interactions with Venezuelan economic institutions to obtain basic economic data; interactions limited to fact-finding and consistent with IMF strategy for fragile and conflict-affected states.
- Monitoring financing assurances for programs (e.g., Ukraine) and continuing to work with partners to secure full financing packages.
Regional and country-specific highlights and statistics
- GCC and Gulf region
- Preliminary assessment: growth expected to weaken; fiscal and external imbalances affected.
- Differential effects expected depending on each country's production and export capacity.
- Most GCC countries have substantial policy buffers and have undertaken reforms to strengthen resilience.
- Observed market effects: declines in equity markets and increasing bond spreads in GCC countries.
- Caribbean and small states
- IMF monitoring for spillovers via energy, food, and fertilizer price increases, transportation disruptions, tourism flows, and remittances.
- Differential impacts depending on whether countries are energy importers or exporters.
- Europe
- Main channel of impact: higher energy prices due to energy import dependence.
- Overall tightening of financial conditions will also affect European economies.
- Lebanon
- Conflict compounds humanitarian crisis and Lebanon's fragile macroeconomic situation.
- Heavy toll on tourism, agriculture, trade; physical infrastructure damage.
- Authorities committed to continuing discussions on a comprehensive reform program and possible IMF arrangement at the authorities' request.
- IMF team currently in Paris for talks; further discussions expected in Washington during the Spring Meetings in April.
- Egypt
- Executive Board approved the Fifth and Sixth Reviews of Egypt's program on February 25th, and the First Review of the RSF arrangement; allowed disbursements of about U.S. $2.3 billion.
- Disbursement breakdown as stated: $2 billion under the EFF, $200, almost $300 million under the RSF.
- So far, impact of the conflict on Egypt has remained relatively contained.
- Policy actions: activation of a high-level crisis management committee; exchange rate flexibility acting as shock absorber; preservation of foreign currency buffers and international reserves; targeted social spending while maintaining prudent fiscal stance.
- Argentina
- Progress continuing on key fronts; close engagement between IMF staff and authorities.
- Argentina now a net energy exporter: $8 billion of oil and gas last year.
- BCRA reserve purchases since start of the year: about $3.5 billion (equivalent to about U.S. $70 million per day).
- Treasury issuing U.S. dollar bonds in local markets with strong appetite.
- Discussions on the Second Review and Article IV Consultation are ongoing.
- Ukraine
- Executive Board approved a new four-year EFF arrangement totaling U.S. $8.1 billion in February, including immediate disbursement of U.S. $1.5 billion.
- This financing forms part of a broader $136.5 billion international assistance package for Ukraine.
- IMF mission currently in Kyiv to engage on progress and plans to meet program commitments, including fiscal, governance, and structural reforms.
- At program approval, IMF had the necessary financing assurances; staff will continue to monitor and work with partners.
- Venezuela
- IMF dealings with Venezuela paused since 2019 due to government recognition issues.
- Working toward technical-level interactions with Venezuelan economic institutions to gather data; such interactions are limited to fact-finding and do not indicate a trajectory toward recognition.
- No update on frozen funds reported.
- El Salvador
- Positive developments: fiscal deficit coming down; economy expanding faster-than-anticipated supported by remittances and investment; security improvements; progress on structural agenda (Financial Stability Law and Fiscal Sustainability Law).
- Discussions toward a Staff-Level Agreement for the next review are continuing; focus areas:
- Plans to continue reducing the fiscal deficit, including pension reforms.
- Deepening structural reforms to strengthen governance, financial deepening, and budget efficiency.
- Strengthening transparency of Bitcoin operations and unwinding government participation in the Bitcoin project.
- Sri Lanka
- Recent Managing Director visit noted significant progress post-Cyclone Ditwah.
- Economic statistics: economy grew by 5 percent in 2025; inflation about 1.6 percent in February.
- Debt restructuring nearly complete; gross international reserves increasing.
- IMF team expected in Sri Lanka from March 26 through April 9 to complete a combined Fifth and Sixth Review and assess Middle East conflict impacts.
- Pakistan
- Discussions underway with authorities for the next program review.
- Team to assess impact of higher oil and fertilizer prices, tighter financial conditions, and other developments.
- Africa (Sub-Saharan Africa)
- Region is diverse: some countries are commodity exporters, others importers; impacts will vary by country.
- Channels of concern: higher oil and gas prices, fertilizer and food price increases, remittances and tourism effects, and tighter global financial conditions.
- Vulnerable countries—those with limited policy buffers, high debt, and low reserves—are at greater risk and may need IMF support.
Central bank guidance and policy considerations
- IMF advice to central banks:
- Remain vigilant in the face of rising energy prices.
- Monitor incoming data for second-round effects and changes in inflation expectations.
- Carefully assess whether inflation is broadening beyond energy-driven increases.
Additional operational notes and clarifications
- No formal requests for emergency financing received at the time of the briefing.
- IMF engagement is ongoing across a broad set of members and regions; Fund stands ready to support members using all available tools.
- Updated country- and global-level assessments to be presented in the April World Economic Outlook and in forthcoming Article IV and review documents.
Transcript: Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, March 19, 2026. Press Briefing, IMF Communications Department.