IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Cameroon
IMF News, March 30, 2026
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- Published: March 30, 2026
Executive summary and context
- Executive Board completed the Article IV Consultation for Cameroon on March 25, 2026; authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report.
- The Cameroonian economy has been resilient to external shocks but growth slowed in 2025 due to election-related disruptions in October and November.
- Outlook described as "cautiously favorable" with recovery expected in 2026, but notable downside risks are highlighted.
Key 2024–26 developments and 2026 near-term outlook
- Growth
- GDP growth: 3.5 percent (2024 est.), 3.1 percent (2025 est.), projected 3.3 percent (2026).
- Non-Oil GDP growth: 3.4 percent (2024), 3.9 percent (2025), 4.1 percent (2026).
- Oil GDP growth: -9.7 percent (2024), -7.2 percent (2025), 0.8 percent (2026).
- Inflation and prices
- Inflation (average): 2.9 percent (2024), 3.4 percent (2025, noted in text), 2.9 percent (projected 2026, text).
- GDP deflator and consumer price series from table: GDP deflator 5.4 (2024), 0.9 (2025), 1.9 (2026); Consumer prices (average) 2.9 (2024), 2.6 (2025), 2.5 (2026).
- Fiscal
- Preliminary estimate: fiscal position weakened in 2025 with a non-oil primary deficit of 2.6 percent of GDP (2025), exceeding budget target of 1.4 percent of GDP.
- Total revenue (including grants): 15.1 percent of GDP (2024), 15.4 (2025), 15.9 (2026).
- Total expenditure: 17.1 percent of GDP (2024), 16.5 (2025), 16.6 (2026).
- Overall fiscal balance (payment order basis, excluding grants): -1.8 percent of GDP (2024), -2.3 (2025), -1.9 (2026).
- Overall fiscal balance (cash basis): -1.6 (2024), -2.4 (2025), -2.2 (2026).
- External sector
- Current account balance (excluding official grants): -4.0 percent of GDP (2024), -5.3 (2025), -5.5 (2026).
- Current account balance (including official grants): -3.3 (2024), -5.2 (2025), -5.4 (2026).
- Trade balance: -3.9 percent of GDP (2024), -3.7 (2025), -3.6 (2026).
- Terms of trade: 21.1 (2024), -1.1 (2025), -16.3 (2026).
- Public debt and financing
- Stock of public debt: 43.4 percent of GDP (2024), 40.3 (2025), 39.6 (2026); projected decline to 32.8 percent of GDP by 2031.
- Of which: external debt 28.4 percent of GDP (2024), 25.0 (2025), 24.8 (2026).
- Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 32,316 (2024), 34,445 (2025), 35,915 (2026).
Medium-term projections and risks
- Medium-term growth and external outlook
- Growth projected to reach 4.6 percent over the medium term as mining diversification materializes.
- Current account deficit projected to curb to 4.0 percent of GDP over the medium term.
- Key downside risks identified
- Tight financial conditions and higher global interest rates increasing financing risks amid large amortizations.
- Reduced aid flows heightening budget pressures.
- Volatile commodity prices (notably cocoa and oil) affecting external and fiscal balances.
- Security and climate-related challenges weighing on growth.
- Further weakening of CEMAC international reserves creating additional uncertainty.
- Short-term effects of recent oil price rise
- Recent rise in oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East expected to have contained near-term effects; oil revenue gains likely partly offset by subsidies under the administered price regime.
Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations
- Overall assessment
- Directors welcomed Cameroon’s economic resilience and noted the broadly favorable medium-term outlook, buoyed by mining and electricity investments.
- Directors agreed with staff appraisal and called for intensified efforts to entrench macroeconomic stability and accelerate structural reforms to support private‑sector‑led growth.
- Fiscal policy and debt management
- Emphasized sustained fiscal consolidation to ease debt sustainability risks and bolster regional macro stability.
- Called for strengthened revenue mobilization, tighter expenditure controls, improved spending efficiency, and better public investment management to create space for infrastructure and social spending.
- Completing fuel subsidy reforms is important; adopting an automatic fuel price setting mechanism along with targeted assistance for the most vulnerable was recommended to ease fiscal risks.
- Strengthen debt management given high risk of debt distress; prioritize concessional project financing over expensive commercial borrowing.
- Urged embedding an arrears clearance plan within a credible medium-term financing strategy.
- Comprehensive SOE reforms and fiscal transparency highlighted as essential to enhance fiscal resilience.
- Financial sector
- Directors underscored need for vigilance amid elevated NPLs and the sovereign-bank nexus.
- Caution urged regarding expanding state footprint in the banking sector; strengthen governance of state‑owned banks.
- Accelerate AML/CFT reforms to exit the FATF grey list.
- Continue promoting financial sector development and financial inclusion to support higher growth.
- Structural reforms and coordination
- More decisive and sustained implementation of structural reforms needed to secure durable private‑sector‑led growth.
- Importance of strengthening governance and transparency, addressing regulatory bottlenecks, and advancing climate resilience reforms.
- Directors encouraged sustained, well-sequenced, and targeted capacity development and close coordination with regional entities.
- Engagement with the Fund
- Directors looked forward to close engagement under the Post‑Financing Assessment framework.
- Next Article IV consultation expected on the standard 12‑month cycle.
Selected quantitative highlights from Table 1 (2024–31)
- GDP at constant prices (annual percent change): 3.5 (2024), 3.1 (2025), 3.3 (2026), 3.8 (2027), 4.2 (2028), 4.3 (2029), 4.4 (2030), 4.6 (2031).
- Oil GDP at constant prices (annual percent change): -9.7 (2024), -7.2 (2025), 0.8 (2026), -4.3 (2027), 10.6 (2028), 3.7 (2029), 3.0 (2030).
- Non-Oil GDP at constant prices (annual percent change): 3.4 (2024), 3.9 (2025), 4.1 (2026), 4.5 (2027).
- GDP deflator: 5.4 (2024), 0.9 (2025), 1.9 (2026), 2.7 (2027), 2.4 (2028).
- Consumer prices (average): 2.9 (2024), 2.6 (2025), 2.5 (2026).
- Broad money (M2): 9.6 (2024), 13.4 (2025), 6.9 (2026).
- Domestic credit to the private sector: 12.3 (2024), 11.2 (2025), 11.7 (2026), 12.2 (2027), 13.5 (2028), 14.2 (2029), 14.5 (2030), 14.3 (2031).
- Gross national savings: 15.6 (2024), 14.8 (2025), 14.1 (2026), 14.9 (2027), 15.5 (2028), 15.8 (2029), 16.3 (2030).
- Gross domestic investment: 18.9 (2024), 18.7 (2025), 19.3 (2026), 19.5 (2027), 19.7 (2028), 20.0 (2029), 20.2 (2030), 20.3 (2031).
- Public investment: 6.0 (2024), 7.4 (2025), 7.7 (2026), 8.2 (2027), 8.9 (2028).
- Total revenue (including grants, percent of GDP): 15.1 (2024), 15.4 (2025), 15.9 (2026), 16.4 (2027).
- Total expenditure (percent of GDP): 17.1 (2024), 16.5 (2025), 16.6 (2026), 16.9 (2027).
- Non‑oil primary balance (payment order basis): -2.6 percent of GDP (2025).
- Current account balance (excluding official grants, percent of GDP): -4.0 (2024), -5.3 (2025), -5.5 (2026), -4.8 (2027), -4.6 (2028), -4.4 (2029), -4.1 (2030).
- Stock of public debt (percent of GDP): 43.4 (2024), 40.3 (2025), 39.6 (2026), 38.9 (2027), 37.4 (2028), 35.9 (2029), 34.1 (2030), 32.8 (2031).
- Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 32,316 (2024), 34,445 (2025), 35,915 (2026), 37,980 (2027), 40,833 (2028), 43,736 (2029), 46,913 (2030), 50,261 (2031).
- Oil nominal receipts (CFAF billions): 1,017 (2024), 834 (2025), 791 (2026), 648 (2027), 686 (2028), 695 (2029), 727 (2030), 761 (2031).
- Non‑Oil nominal receipts (CFAF billions): 31,299 (2024), 33,610 (2025), 35,123 (2026), 37,333 (2027), 40,147 (2028), 43,041 (2029), 46,186 (2030), 49,500 (2031).
Source: IMF press release “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Cameroon”, March 30, 2026.