IMF Executive Board Approves Rwanda’s Request for an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

IMF News, June 8, 2026

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IMF Executive Board Approves Rwanda’s Request for an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

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• Published: June 8, 2026

Program approval and financing

• The Executive Board approved an SDR 185.031 million (equivalent to US$ 250 million) ECF arrangement for Rwanda.
• Access: SDR 185.031 million (115.5 percent of quota).
• Authorized immediate disbursement: SDR 26.433 million (about US$35.7 million).
• Program duration: 38‑month ECF-supported program.
• Program objectives: help Rwanda adapt to tighter global financing conditions while sustaining growth, protecting priority social and development spending, and rebuilding policy buffers.

Economic context and near-term outlook

• Growth: Real GDP growth reached 9.4 percent in 2025—“much higher than expected.”
• Inflation: Inflation increased in early 2026, surpassing the central bank’s target range and rising further to 13.2 percent year-on-year in April 2026.
• External position: Improved in 2025, helped by strong exports of coffee and minerals; imports remained high, especially equipment and materials needed for local businesses.
• Reserves: Foreign exchange reserves covered just over four months of imports.
• Risks: The war in the Middle East could weigh on growth, inflation, external balance and debt; it is driving higher international oil and fertilizer prices and contributing to fiscal and current account pressures.
• Outlook: Growth expected to moderate to below 6.8 percent in 2026.

Program pillars and policy guidance

• Program anchor: sustain reform momentum, support sound macroeconomic adjustment, and rebuild policy buffers while managing impacts of the war in the Middle East.
• Three key pillars:
  • Strengthening a coherent macroeconomic policy mix.
  • Managing fiscal and debt risks to sustain growth.
  • Promoting private-sector-led growth with transparent fiscal oversight of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
• Fiscal policy guidance:
  • “A credible medium-term fiscal consolidation path will be pivotal to reducing external imbalances and safeguarding Rwanda’s moderate risk of debt distress, while safeguarding social objectives.”
  • Consolidation should be anchored around stronger revenue mobilization, improved public investment management, and enhanced monitoring of capital spending and other fiscal risks.
  • Any support measures should be targeted, temporary, and consistent with the fiscal framework.
• Monetary policy guidance:
  • “An appropriately tight and forward-looking monetary policy will help address elevated inflationary pressures.”
  • Strengthen policy communication, reinforce the credibility of the inflation target, and improve transmission to better anchor inflation expectations.
  • Rapid credit growth and concentrated exposures warrant close monitoring though the financial sector remains stable.
• Structural reforms:
  • Priorities include improving public investment efficiency, strengthening institutional frameworks, and accelerating SOE reforms to contain fiscal risks and foster a more dynamic economic environment.
• Conditionality and role of partners:
  • The ECF-supported program is “underpinned by the authorities’ strong policy commitment and continued engagement with development partners” and is intended to provide an appropriate policy anchor to support orderly adjustment, sustain reform momentum, and catalyze more financing.

Selected economic indicators, 2025–30 (as reported)

• Output
  • Real GDP growth (%): 2025 Act. 9.4; 2026 Proj. 6.8; 2027 7.2; 2028 7.0; 2029 —; 2030 —.
• Prices
  • Inflation - average (%): 2025 10.4; 2026 6.5; 2027 5.0.
• Central government finances (fiscal year)1
  • Revenue (% GDP)2: 2025 19.4; 2026 19.7; 2027 19.8; 2028 19.9.
  • Expense (% GDP)2: 2025 15.9; 2026 15.3; 2027 15.1; 2028 14.7; 2029 14.9; 2030 —.
  • Fiscal balance (% GDP)3: 2025 -5.5; 2026 -5.7; 2027 -4.8; 2028 -4.1; 2029 -3.0.
  • Public debt (% GDP): 2025 73.6; 2026 73.1; 2027 72.9; 2028 72.6; 2029 70.6; 2030 69.1.
  • External public debt (% GDP): 2025 59.3; 2026 59.8; 2027 60.8; 2028 61.0; 2029 59.5; 2030 58.0.
• Money and credit
  • Broad money (% change): 2025 18.2; 2026 16.5; 2027 14.0; 2028 13.7; 2029 14.1.
  • Credit to private sector (% change): 2025 21.6; 2026 1.8; 2027 15.6; 2028 13.9; 2029 16.3.
  • Policy Rate, end-of-period (%): 2025 6.75; 2026 ….
• Balance of Payments
  • Current account (% GDP): 2025 -11.8; 2026 -14.1; 2027 -12.0; 2028 -8.4; 2029 -6.7.
  • Reserves (in months of imports): 2025 4.2; 2026 4.0; 2027 4.3; 2028 4.5; 2029 4.6.
• Exchange rate
  • REER (% change): 2025 -5.1.

1 Based on fiscal year (i.e. 2024 represents 2023/24). 2 Revenue and expenditure use GFSM 2014 presentation. 3 For purposes of the PCI, the overall balance (GFSM 1986 definition, incl. policy lending) is used for monitoring.

IMF Press Release No. 26/191 — June 8, 2026.

References

• Rwanda and the IMF
• Press Releases
• PRESS CENTER
• Extended Credit Facility (ECF)
• Rwanda and IMF
• https://www.imf.org/en/home