Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, June 25, 2026
IMF News, June 26, 2026
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- Published: June 26, 2026
Announcements and Logistics
- Briefing embargo: embargoed until 11 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
- Upcoming IMF engagements announced:
- First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz in Gdansk, Poland for the Ukraine Recovery Conference (today).
- Deputy Managing Director Bo Lee to travel to Tashkent, Uzbekistan on June 29th for the monetary policy dialogue 2026, participating in a panel titled Monetary Policy under Global Volatility and the Wave of Digitalization.
- World Economic Outlook Update to be issued on July 8.
- 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand from October 12th to 18th — registration open via IMFConnect.org; visa-seekers should register no later than September 1st, 2026.
Venezuela — Earthquake Response, SDRs, and Debt Restructuring Role
- Immediate stance and engagement:
- IMF: "deeply saddened" and "closely monitoring developments"; "closely engaged with the Venezuelan authorities" as they assess economic impact and recovery needs.
- No detailed operational decisions announced yet on amounts or mechanics.
- On the reported "special fund" of up to $200 million:
- IMF: no confirmation or detailed information available at the time; will provide details as discussions evolve.
- On IMF involvement in debt restructuring:
- The Fund "is not and have not been involved in the debt restructuring process that has been announced by Venezuela."
- Typical IMF role when a country has a program:
- Provide the macroeconomic framework.
- Provide a debt sustainability assessment.
- Assess whether an agreement with creditors is consistent with program parameters and will durably restore debt sustainability.
- The IMF "is never a party to the negotiations and the discussions"; assistance is available if requested by authorities.
India — Growth, Energy Shock, and Resilience
- Growth projections and recent data:
- IMF projection: growth at 6.5 percent in fiscal year 2026-2027 (April projection).
- India first quarter calendar-year growth: 7.8 percent (first quarter actual above April projection).
- Drivers and offsets:
- Strong domestic demand and carryover from last year.
- Reduction in the U.S. tariff rate (from 50 percent to 10 percent) partly offset the global energy shock.
- Energy shock impacts:
- India experienced supply disruptions and higher import prices, putting pressure on costs, inflation, and potentially fiscal deficits.
- Positive buffers: low inflation entering the shock, modest current account deficit, and ample foreign exchange reserves — sources of resilience.
Argentina — Payments, Market Access, Employment, and Program Status
- Upcoming obligations:
- Argentina faces debt payments of nearly $23 billion next year, including debt owed to the IMF.
- Recent program and market developments:
- IMF assessment: Argentina "continuing to make important progress in restoring macroeconomic stability": growth continued, inflation is falling, international reserves being rebuilt, financing conditions improving.
- Sovereign spreads narrowed to below 450 basis points.
- Market sentiment improved, with upgrades by two credit rating agencies.
- Decisions on timing and terms of market access remain for Argentine authorities.
- Multilateral support (World Bank, IADB) seen as catalytic to improve financing conditions and support return to market financing.
- IMF statement: Argentina has made all of its payments to the Fund; IMF "confident that they will continue to do so."
- Labor market and informality:
- Labor reform is recent; effects take time to emerge.
- Formalization depends on macro outcomes, tax/regulatory structure, and labor market rigidities.
- IMF supports reforms that promote formal job creation.
- Risk language and repayment:
- IMF recently used language noting "exceptional risks for repayment" from Argentina; additional progress in strengthening fiscal anchors, policy frameworks, and reserve buffers would increase comfort regarding repayment prospects.
Angola, Zambia, South Africa, and African Programs
- Angola:
- 2026 Article IV Consultation and FSAP completed in May.
- 2025 growth: "a little over 3 percent."
- 2025 inflation: about 20 percent; latest reading (May): 10.9 percent.
- Structural decline in oil production implies subdued medium-term growth and need for diversification; tight monetary policy helping reduce inflation.
- Zambia:
- Concluded 38-month ECF program at end-January 2026; program performance described as good despite shocks.
- IMF team visited Lusaka in early May to advance discussions on a successor arrangement; Zambia has requested another program and negotiations will resume after elections.
- IMF projection: growth 5.8 percent in 2026.
- Inflation expected to converge toward Central Bank target of 6 to 8 percent.
- Debt assessment: sustainable but at high risk of debt distress.
- South Africa:
- April projection: growth about 1 percent in 2026; recovery to 1.3 percent in 2027 (April projection).
- Headline inflation projected to increase to 3.9 percent in 2026 due to higher oil prices; expected to decline toward SARB's new inflation target of 3 percent over the medium term.
- Monetary policy advice: central bank should remain "laser-focused on keeping inflation expectations anchored."
- Exiting IMF programs in Africa:
- Decision to exit or request successor arrangements is for authorities; example: Zambia requested a successor arrangement. IMF stands ready to assist according to country preferences.
Middle East War, Global Economy, and WEO Update Scenarios
- Assessment framework (three channels, as in April):
- Commodity prices (notably oil).
- Second-round effects on inflation and inflation expectations.
- Financial conditions.
- Commodity price developments:
- Oil prices: fallen from peaks and "about 10 percent above their pre-war levels."
- Declines observed in other commodities (jet fuel, natural gas, base metals, urea and some fertilizer prices).
- Full normalization expected to take time due to shipping/logistics and contingent on sustained ceasefire.
- Inflation and financial conditions:
- Some central banks have raised rates; others on hold.
- Inflation expectations have generally remained anchored; central banks urged to remain vigilant.
- Financial conditions remain accommodative; sovereign spreads compressed and financing available in international markets.
- Scenarios and WEO Update:
- IMF had previously outlined a reference, an adverse, and an extreme scenario; whether all three remain in play or a baseline will be used will be decided in the WEO Update on July 8.
- Vulnerable countries:
- Greatest concern for net energy importers with limited fiscal/other buffers (many in Africa).
Lebanon — Conflict Impact and IMF Engagement
- Economic and humanitarian situation:
- "Very challenging economic and social humanitarian situation" with resumed war; damage to housing, infrastructure, and activity.
- IMF expectation: GDP will contract in 2026 given impact on tourism, agriculture, and confidence.
- IMF engagement:
- Focused on immediate crisis management measures and longer-term reforms.
- Lebanon had earlier strengthened fiscal and international reserves, providing limited room to address urgent humanitarian needs.
- Ongoing discussions on a comprehensive reform program, including banking sector restructuring strategy and medium-term fiscal strategy.
- No timeline provided for program completion; discussions ongoing.
United States — Growth, Inflation, and Federal Reserve
- U.S. growth and momentum:
- First quarter growth "2.1 percent" (numbers released that morning; stronger than preliminary estimate).
- Government consumption bounce-back after 2025 government shutdown; strong investment and imports of capital goods.
- Labor productivity "continues to be very strong."
- Inflation outlook and Fed stance:
- IMF expectation: inflation to reach the 2 percent target by end-2027.
- IMF view: Fed "appropriately decided to keep the policy rate on hold"; future actions should be data-dependent and carefully calibrated.
- IMF welcomed new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's commitment to price stability.
Ukraine — EFF First Review and Disbursement
- Staff–Level Agreement:
- Agreement reached on June 12th for the First Review under the EFF.
- Access and timing:
- Subject to Executive Board approval, Ukraine would access U.S. $690 million, bringing total disbursements under the program to U.S. $2.2 billion.
- The Board is expected to consider this review "in the coming weeks."
- Reforms and corrective actions:
- Revised timetable for structural reforms agreed to cover governance, anti-corruption, and institutional reforms, plus broader measures to support a market-based economy.
- Corrective actions to address recent slippages to keep the program on track; further details to follow Board approval and staff report publication.
Egypt — Seventh Review (EFF) and RSF Second Review
- Status of reviews:
- Discussions on the Seventh Review of the EFF and the Second Review under the RSF are progressing.
- IMF objective: hold Board Meetings this summer to enable a disbursement of about U.S. $1.6 billion.
- Policy priorities:
- IMF welcomes continued efforts to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization, broaden tax base, and improve efficiency, fairness, and transparency of the tax system.
- IMF engagement on state ownership policy and asset divestment program to reduce the state's footprint and support private-sector-led growth.
Sri Lanka — Staff Visit and Energy Costs
- Mission timing:
- IMF team in Sri Lanka for a staff visit during June 24th through 30th.
- Focus:
- Take stock of recent economic developments, including the impact of the war in the Middle East and the energy price shock.
- Assess performance under the IMF-supported recovery program.
- Team to communicate findings at end of mission.
Ethiopia — Fifth Review, Rephasing, and Disbursement Profile
- Staff–Level Agreement and Board timing:
- Staff-Level Agreement on the Fifth Review of the ECF reached on June 3rd.
- Subject to Executive Board approval, Ethiopia would access about U.S. $468 million; total IMF support under the ECF to date would be around U.S. $2.6 billion.
- Board Meeting expected on July 1st.
- Rephasing and brought-forward support:
- Fifth Review plans to bring forward $200 million to help Ethiopia respond to the economic impact of the war in the Middle East and the energy shock.
- Total access under the program remains unchanged at the original U.S. $3.4 billion.
- Next steps:
- Staff report to be published following the Board Meeting and will contain the revised disbursement profile for the remainder of the program.
Kenya and Senegal — Governance Diagnostics, Program Discussions, and Hidden Debt in Senegal
- Kenya:
- Managing Director visited Nairobi on May 11th and 12th; reaffirmed IMF support for reforms, governance strengthening, and inclusive growth.
- IMF engaging with authorities on timing for next Article IV; no dates announced.
- Governance Diagnostic Assessment Report: draft shared with authorities; publication pending authorities' consent.
- Senegal:
- IMF remains engaged on a new program request; technical discussions are ongoing to reach shared understanding on macro outlook, financing needs, and reforms.
- Staff team visited Senegal last week for constructive technical discussions.
- Actions already taken by authorities:
- Successive audits of public debt.
- Institutional reforms to unify debt management functions.
- Further decisive actions IMF encourages:
- Launch of an audit by a private international firm.
- Completing ongoing and comprehensive audit of payment arrears.
- Measures to strengthen budgetary commitment controls.
- Debt context:
- Total public sector debt estimated at 132 percent of GDP at end-2024.
- Authorities have remained current on debt obligations despite high debt level.
Source: Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, June 25, 2026