Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, July 9, 2026
IMF News, July 9, 2026
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- Published: July 9, 2026
Announcements and logistics
- Press briefing embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
- IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will visit Argentina and Uruguay later this month.
- First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz concluded his trip to Brazil and will travel to South Africa from August 4th through 6th.
- July WEO Economic Outlook Update released; update, related blog and press conference transcripts available on IMF.org.
- Registration for the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings (Bangkok, Thailand) is open for the meetings from October 12th through 18th; register through IMFConnect.org. Visa registration deadline: September 1st, 2026.
- Managing Director visit to Argentina scheduled for July 28th and 29th.
IMF response to the war in the Middle East and financing stance
- Most IMF members are seeking support in the form of policy advice and capacity development rather than predominantly new lending.
- For countries already on IMF-supported programs, support (policy advice, macroeconomic frameworks and financing) is being provided within existing arrangements; adjustments have been made in some cases through augmentation or rephasing.
- The IMF stands ready to use all its tools to support members as they navigate economic challenges arising from the conflict and associated commodity shocks.
World Economic Outlook (WEO) July update — key assumptions and global outlook
- Two key assumptions underpinning the July WEO update:
- The Strait of Hormuz starts to open in mid-July.
- The average oil price assumed for 2026 is $89 a barrel.
- The global economy is described as resilient despite elevated uncertainty; two opposing forces are noted:
- Negative supply shock from the war pushing up commodity prices (energy, fertilizer, food).
- Positive demand and productivity shock from the technology cycle and AI-led investment.
- The WEO places scenario analysis centrally as a tool to quantify alternative outcomes in a highly uncertain environment.
Monetary policy communications and forward guidance
- Forward guidance was particularly useful when policy interest rates were at the zero lower bound.
- As circumstances have changed (no longer at the zero lower bound), central banks are reassessing communication modalities.
- The IMF looks forward to engaging with the Federal Reserve on the findings of its communications task force.
- The IMF supports the use of scenario analysis by central banks to illustrate different potential outcomes under uncertainty.
Country-specific updates and program statuses
- Argentina
- WEO projections: growth at 3.5 percent in 2026 and 4 percent in 2027.
- Projected gradual decline in inflation.
- Argentina is identified as a net energy exporter, which has supported the economy amid the Middle East shock.
- IMF welcomes Argentina's comprehensive financing strategy and greater transparency; Argentina's spreads narrowed after its publication.
- IMF supports reform of the central bank charter to strengthen policy independence, clarify mandate, enhance accountability and transparency, and reduce fiscal dominance.
- Managing Director Georgieva will visit Argentina on July 28th–29th to meet President Milei, the economic team and other stakeholders.
- Senegal
- Zeine Zeidane, IMF Director, African Department, visited Senegal from July 3rd through 6th following a recent IMF staff visit.
- Discussions focused on reaching a shared understanding of Senegal's financing needs and reform priorities to underpin a potential IMF-supported program; technical discussions are continuing.
- Senegal continues to face significant debt challenges; IMF commends authorities for disclosure of hidden debt and steps to strengthen fiscal governance.
- Timing for a Staff-Level Agreement remains uncertain; IMF will update when more to say.
- Lebanon
- Ongoing two-track IMF engagement:
- Crisis management measures to mitigate immediate humanitarian and macroeconomic impacts.
- Program discussions focused on banking sector restructuring strategy and a medium-term fiscal strategy for a comprehensive IMF-supported arrangement.
- The full economic impact of the conflict will be known over time; IMF remains engaged to support Lebanon's recovery.
- Egypt
- IMF staff and Egyptian authorities reached a Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) on the Seventh Review under the EFF and the Second Review under the RSF; SLA announced on June 29th.
- Executive Board expected to consider the review later in the summer.
- Upon Board approval, Egypt would receive about $1.6 billion in financing.
- Egypt’s timely macroeconomic policy adjustments have helped preserve macroeconomic stability; IMF advises continued program implementation and reforms to increase private sector-led growth.
- Venezuela
- The IMF is coordinating with the authorities and other IFIs following a devastating earthquake; discussing mobilization of readily available reserves to address urgent humanitarian needs.
- Reserve tranche position (member's readily available claim on the IMF): nearly U.S. $350 million as of July 8th.
- Venezuela's SDR holdings: about $4.5 billion.
- IMF clarified distinction between the reserve tranche and SDR holdings; both are reserve assets recorded separately at the IMF.
- IMF working with counterparts to facilitate access to Venezuela's resources at the Fund.
- India
- WEO projections: India is projected at 6.4 percent growth for fiscal year '26-'27 (also cited as calendar year 2027 in the briefing) and rising to 6.7 percent in 2027.
- India remains a leading engine of global growth; IMF encourages continuation of structural reforms (skills, labor market flexibility, regulatory and compliance cost reductions, deeper trade integration).
- Supply chain diversification has benefited India, concentrated in electronics: India's electronics exports rose by 24 percent in fiscal year '25-'26; smartphones have become a major export product, with increases happening largely through domestic contract manufacturers.
- China
- WEO projections: growth slowing from 5 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in 2026 (small upgrade relative to April).
- Structural challenges highlighted: persistently subdued domestic demand (particularly consumption), weakening productivity growth, and demographic headwinds from population aging.
- IMF advises transition from export-led to consumption-led growth via more forceful expansionary macro policies, measures to reduce high household savings, and support for the property sector.
- United States
- Q1 GDP growth: 2.1 percent (bounce back after a weak Q4 2025).
- IMF forecasts growth at 2.3 percent in 2026.
- IMF projects inflation to return to the 2 percent target by the end of 2027.
- IMF notes inflation pressures from commodity price shocks but observes that inflation expectations have remained relatively contained; recommends the Federal Reserve proceed with caution and calibrate decisions to incoming data.
- Sub-Saharan Africa / Regional update
- Regional growth expected to edge down slightly in 2026 to 4.3 percent.
- In 2025, economic activity in Africa expanded at its fastest pace in over a decade and inflation fell.
- Oil exporters in Sub-Saharan Africa likely to benefit from stronger revenues; oil importers and fragile states are more vulnerable due to limited fiscal space.
- Primary drivers of inflation in the region are commodity prices (food and energy), large weight of these items in consumption baskets, exchange rate weaknesses, and in some cases fiscal dominance.
- Migration is not seen as a primary driver of inflation; IMF policy advice emphasizes structural reforms, improved labor markets, business environment, and strong macroeconomic policy frameworks.
- Malawi
- IMF staff team visited Malawi from June 8th to 18th to take stock of developments and initiate policy discussions aligned with the authorities' National Economic Recovery Plan.
- Technical and policy discussions continue with the goal of agreeing a package of policies and reforms that could be supported under an ECF arrangement, with strong protections for priority social spending.
- IMF Director, African Department, met Malawi authorities on July 8th and encouraged continued cooperation toward an ECF agreement.
- Ukraine
- IMF reached a Staff-Level Agreement in June.
- Executive Board expected to consider the first review in the coming weeks; IMF will announce a precise Board meeting date when available.
IMF lending, financing metrics and operational notes
- IMF support modalities include policy advice, capacity development and financing within existing programs; adjustments via augmentation or rephasing have been used where appropriate.
- Specific financing figures mentioned:
- Egypt: upon Board approval, about $1.6 billion in financing.
- Venezuela reserve tranche: nearly U.S. $350 million as of July 8th.
- Venezuela SDR holdings: about $4.5 billion.
- IMF emphasizes transparency, fiscal governance strengthening, and credible financing strategies to restore market confidence and support durable access to markets.
Scenarios, uncertainty, and use of scenario analysis
- IMF underscores elevated uncertainty globally and endorses using scenario analysis to present alternative outcomes and quantify risks.
- Scenario analysis is highlighted as useful for both IMF forecasting (WEO) and for central banks adapting communications and policy frameworks in a changing environment.
Source: Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, July 9, 2026.