Power, Markets, and Strategy in a Changing Global Order

IMF Seminars

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Power, Markets, and Strategy in a Changing Global Order

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Conference overview

• Event: Power, Markets, and Strategy in a Changing Global Order.
• Organizer: IMF Conference.
• Location: Bangkok, Thailand.
• Dates: June 11-12, 2026.
• Focus: how trade, investment, finance, and regulation are deployed as instruments of power in a shifting global order; theoretical and empirical papers on when interdependence creates leverage or vulnerability; how industrial policy, supply-chain security, and technological capabilities reshape statecraft and macroeconomic outcomes.

Themes and research focus

• Interdependence as leverage or vulnerability in international economic relations.
• Industrial policy and optimal technology adoption strategies.
• Supply-chain security, technological capabilities, and geopolitical fragmentation.
• State capacity, sovereign default, and financial statecraft.
• Sanctions, security, and the macroeconomic implications of financial restrictions.
• Digital finance, monetary policy, and global integration, including implications for stablecoins and fintech entry.

Program highlights and sessions (selected schedule items and exact timings)

• 8:30–9:00 AM
  • Registration
• 9:00–9:15 AM
  • Opening Remarks; Vitai Ratanakorn, Governor, Bank of Thailand
• 9:15–10:45 AM — Session I: Demand, Specialization, and Industrial Strategy; Chair: Nat Tharnpanich (Chulalongkorn University)
  • Chasing Demand; Arnav Deshpande (NYU), Martin Rotemberg (NYU), Sharon Traiberman (NYU); Discussant: Juthathip Jongwanich (Thammasat University)
  • Technology Adoption and Optimal Industrial Policy; Fernando Alvarez (University of Chicago), Francisco Buera (Washington University in St. Louis), and Nicholas Trachter (Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond); Discussant: Dan Lu (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)
• 10:45–11:00 AM
  • Coffee Break
• 11:00 AM–12:30 PM — Session II: State Capacity, Default, and Financial Power; Chair: Changhua Yu (Peking University)
  • Tax Revolts and Sovereign Defaults; Fernando Arce (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago), Jan Morgan (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), and Nicolas Werquin (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Discussant: Maxim Alekseev (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
  • Beyond Market Exclusion: Creditor Attrition After Sovereign Default; Clemens Graf von Luckner (Stanford University) and Sebastian Horn (University of Hamburg); Discussant: Jun Hee Kwak (Sogang University)
• 12:30–2:00 PM
  • Lunch Break
• 2:00–3:00 PM
  • Keynote Address; Chair: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund); Keynote Speaker: Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan (Schreiber Family Professor of Economics, Brown University)
• 3:00–3:15 PM
  • Coffee Break
• 3:15–5:30 PM — Session III: Geopolitics and Global Economic Fragmentation; Chair: Pym Manopimoke (Bank of Thailand)
  • Multilateral Institutions and Technology Fragmentation: Lessons from the Era of Global Integration; Weili Chen (Penn State University), Jingting Fan (Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business), and Wenlan Luo (Tsinghua University); Discussant: Pao-Li Chang (Singapore Management University)
  • The Coercive Turn Toward Swing States: Vertical Bottlenecks and the Paradox of Competitiveness; Hyungjin Kim (Korean Development Institute); Discussant: Ju Hyun Pyun (Korea University Business School)
  • Geopolitical Barriers to Globalization; Tianyu Fan (Yale University), Mai Wo (Yale University), and Wei Xiang (University of Michigan); Discussant: Woan Foong Wong (University of Oregon)
• 9:00–11:15 AM — Session IV: Sanctions, Security, and Financial Statecraft; Chair: Pao-Li Chang (Singapore Management University)
  • Financial Sanctions, Sovereign Default, and Macroeconomic Implications; Vincenzo Quadrini (University of Southern California); Discussant: JungJae Park (Yonsei University)
  • U.S. Military Protection, Allies’ Portfolios, and Exorbitant Privilege; Paolo Cavallino (Bank for International Settlements), Daniel Jimenez (Université catholique de Louvain), and Alessandro Rebucci (Johns Hopkins Carey Business School); Discussant: Changhua Yu (Peking University)
  • International Economic Sanctions and Monetary Policy; Fabio Ghironi (University of Washington), Daisoon Kim (North Carolina State University), and Galip Kemal Ozhan (IMF); Discussant: Ippei Fujiwara (Keio University)
• 11:15 AM–12:45 PM
  • Lunch Break
• 12:45–2:00 PM — Policy Panel: Policy in a World of Strategic Interdependence; Chair: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund)
  • Panelists: Piti Disyatat (Bank of Thailand); Selena Ling (OCBC); Albert F. Park (Asian Development Bank); Danny Quah (National University of Singapore)
• 2:00–2:15 PM
  • Coffee Break
• 2:15–3:45 PM — Session V: Digital Finance, Monetary Policy, and Global Integration; Chair: Nuwat Nookhwun (Bank of Thailand)
  • Stablecoins Meet the Mundell-Fleming Trilemma*; Pablo D. Azar (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Maryam Farboodi (MIT Sloan School of Management); Discussant: Kanis Saengchote (Chulalongkorn Business School)
  • Fintech Entry, Firm Financial Inclusion, and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Emerging Economies; Alan Finkelstein Shapiro (Tufts University), Federico S. Mandelman (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta), and Victoria Nuguer (Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México); Discussant: Han Qiu (Bank for International Settlements)

Organizers, coordinators, and contact

• Organizing Committee:
  • Laura Alfaro (IADB and Guest Editor, IMF Economic Review)
  • Yan Bai (University of Rochester and Guest Editor, IMF Economic Review)
  • Emine Boz (IMF and Co-Editor, IMF Economic Review)
  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania and Editor, IMF Economic Review)
  • Nuwat Nookhwun (Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, Section Head)
  • Adrian Peralta-Alva (IMF)
  • Nada Wasi (Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, Research Director)
• Conference Coordinators: Luisa Calixto and Julia Grisard (IMF)
• Contact for submissions or logistics: IMFERSummerconf@imf.org

Conference materials

• Papers and presentations approved for distribution from the conference are available for download through the link provided by the conference organizers.

References

• From Micro to Macro: Leveraging Microdata to Address Macroeconomic Issues | Colombia, August 5-6, 2025
• Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy | Germany, July 23-24, 2024
• The Future of Macroeconomic Policy | Norway, June 15-16, 2023
• Transformational Recovery: Seizing Opportunities from the Crisis | Morocco, June 23-24, 2022
• Current Policy Challenges Facing Emerging Markets | Chile, July 24-25, 2019
• The Euro at 20 | Ireland, June 25-26, 2018
• IMF Annual Research Conference
• IMF Seminars, Conferences, and Events
• Keynote Address
• Policy Panel: Policy in a World of Strategic Interdependence