Brazil: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
IMF Staff Country Reports, May 12, 2015
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- Brazil: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
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Bibliographic details
- Published: May 12, 2015
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484380758.002
Growth outlook and key projection
- Brazil’s growth has decelerated in recent years.
- IMF staff projects negative output growth of 1 percent in 2015.
- Downward momentum in activity carried over from 2014.
Drivers of the slowdown
- The boost from decade-old reforms, expanding labor income, and favorable external conditions has lost steam.
- Consumption- and credit-led growth that underpinned sustained poverty reduction has weakened.
- Investment has been sluggish due to:
- eroding competitiveness,
- a worsening business environment,
- lower commodity prices.
- Cuts in investment by Petrobras added to the downward momentum.
Policy stance and short-term influences
- Tighter fiscal and monetary policies are contributing some drag to activity.
- Interaction of weaker private investment and policy tightening amplifies near-term slowdown risks.
Subject areas and keywords covered
- Subject: Banking; Currencies; External debt; Fiscal policy; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Money; Prices; Public debt.
- Keywords: central bank; consumer confidence; core inflation; CR; Currencies; exchange rate depreciation; financing; Fiscal stance; GDP; Global; Inflation; ISCR; monetary policy; Policy lending; short-term debt.
Source: Brazil: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation, International Monetary Fund.