Sudan: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sudan

IMF Staff Country Reports, October 4, 2016

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Sudan is facing significant domestic and international constraints and large macroeconomic imbalances despite efforts made toward macroeconomic stability and growth.
Good harvests boosted growth to close to 5 percent in 2015.
The outlook is subject to significant downside risks.

Growth: close to 5 percent in 2015.
Inflation: contained to 12.6 percent at end-2015; rose to 16.5 percent in July 2016.

Low commodity export prices, expansionary policies, and insufficient exchange rate adjustment contributed to wider external imbalances.
The terms-of-trade shock widened the current account deficit to 6 percent of GDP in 2015.

The budget deficit widened to 1.9 percent of GDP owing to shortfalls in oil revenue.

External imbalances were driven by a combination of low external commodity prices and domestic policy choices (expansionary policies and limited exchange rate adjustment).
Shortfalls in oil revenue had a material fiscal impact, widening the budget deficit.
Rising inflation between end-2015 and July 2016 indicates emerging price pressures that may compound macroeconomic vulnerabilities.
The combination of external and fiscal pressures, and elevated inflation, underpin the assessment that the outlook carries significant downside risks.

Sudan: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sudan