Vietnam: 2016 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vietnam

IMF Staff Country Reports, July 18, 2016

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Vietnam’s economy experienced solid growth with low inflation, reflecting policy attention to maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Economic performance was robust through most of 2015, driven by:
- rapid export growth
- foreign direct investment
- strong domestic demand
Manufacturing and exports moderated near year-end 2015, reflecting slowing external demand.
Inflation dynamics:
- Inflation declined below 1 percent in 2015
- Inflation ticked upward in early 2016 owing to higher food and administered prices
Outlook for 2016:
- Growth is projected to moderate to about 6 percent, reflecting the adverse agriculture shock, lower external demand, and spillovers of tighter global financial conditions.

Growth:
- Robust through most of 2015; projected to moderate to about 6 percent in 2016.
Inflation:
- Declined below 1 percent in 2015.
- Tick upward in early 2016 due to higher food and administered prices.
Drivers of 2015 performance:
- Rapid export growth
- Foreign direct investment inflow
- Strong domestic demand
Risks to 2016 outlook:
- Adverse agriculture shock
- Lower external demand
- Spillovers of tighter global financial conditions