IMF Staff Country Reports

Kenya is navigating a turbulent global backdrop marked by volatile commodity prices, slowing growth in key trading partners, and constrained frontier market access to international capital markets. At home, a smooth transition following the August elections demonstrated Kenya’s increasing institutional strengths, while the multi-season drought has worsened food insecurity for vulnerable populations in arid and semi-arid regions and kept food prices elevated. Strong tax overperformance in FY2021/22 helped cushion some of these shocks, and the administration of President Ruto eliminated petrol subsidies in their first week in office. Inflation has breached the central bank (CBK) target band, and monetary policy has been tightened by 175 basis points this year. Foreign reserves are adequate, but lower than previously projected given shortfalls in FY2021/22 external public commercial and project financing, spending cuts in FY2022/23 also extending to externally-financed projects, and the prospects for continued challenging market conditions for frontier economies into 2023.