IMF Staff Country Reports

This 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mali’s economy has been hit by multiple shocks since 2020 but remained resilient in 2022 amid high inflation. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth increased from 3.1 percent in 2021 to 3.7 percent in 2022, despite elevated security and socio-political challenges, regional sanctions in the first half of 2022 and a high incidence of food insecurity. Growth is projected to rebound to over 5 percent in 2023 and 2024, assuming strong agricultural and gold output. However, the economic outlook is subject to significant downside risks. They include a worsening security situation, potential election delays, volatile international commodity prices, tighter global financial conditions, and climate risks. The government’s fiscal deficit reflects a rapid increase in security spending, public wages, and the interest bill, which are crowding out growth-friendly spending including those on the social safety net and capital investment. Mali’s current account deficit improved slightly in 2022, down to 6.9 percent of GDP from 7.5 percent in 2021, on account of higher gold exports and lower capital goods imports.