IMF Staff Country Reports

This paper presents Nigeria’s post-financing assessment discussions. President Tinubu has moved ahead with important structural reforms: removing fuel subsidies and unifying the various official foreign exchange windows. Growth is projected at 2.9 percent for 2023, and 3 percent in 2024, as hydrocarbon performance revives, including from better control of theft. If the authorities succeed in developing and implementing a comprehensive reform agenda, the medium-term outlook would be much improved. The government’s focus on revenue mobilization and digitalization would improve public service delivery and safeguard fiscal sustainability. The IMF staff assesses that Nigeria’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate under the baseline. The authorities’ policy intentions are well placed to address risks of a downside scenario where difficult trade-offs may arise between urgent humanitarian needs and debt service, including to the Fund. In such circumstances, aggressive monetary tightening and fiscal adjustment combined with support from development partners would be needed to restore macroeconomic stability.