IMF Staff Country Reports

The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brunei faces complex diversification challenges while it continues to contend with a protracted recovery since the pandemic. Real gross domestic product has rebounded moderately, driven mainly by the non-oil and gas (O&G) sector and earlier than expected supply from a new O&G field in Q4 2023. The recovery is expected to continue, with growth strengthening in 2024 given the increase in O&G production, including from new fields. Inflation is projected to remain unchanged, and fiscal and external balances are expected to stabilize alongside O&G prices. The report recommends maintaining a prudent fiscal stance given the narrowing output gap, uncertainty around O&G revenues and long-term decarbonization trends. Brunei’s currency board has served it well: continuing to align policy rates with the Monetary Authority of Singapore is recommended. It is also recommended to closely monitor credit growth and ensure that the foreign loans continue to be invested in high credit-rated assets, to help to mitigate credit risk.