Romania: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania
IMF Staff Country Reports, November 14, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Romania: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: November 14, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229031547.002
Summary findings
- The Romanian economy is expected to grow gradually in the near term amid necessary fiscal consolidation addressing the widening twin deficits.
- Public finances have deteriorated, driven by significant increases in pension spending, public wages, and domestically financed capital expenditure, and added pressure on the current account.
- A large fiscal reform package aimed at reducing the deficit to below 6 percent of GDP in 2026, including a VAT rate hike and other tax measures, has helped avoid a cutoff of structural EU funds and a sovereign credit rating downgrade to non-investment status.
- Headline inflation is expected to remain elevated until mid-2026 due to the impact of the VAT rate hike and the end of energy price caps.
Fiscal policy and public finances
- Deterioration drivers:
- Significant increases in pension spending.
- Significant increases in public wages.
- Significant increases in domestically financed capital expenditure.
- Fiscal reform package:
- Objective: reduce the deficit to below 6 percent of GDP in 2026.
- Measures include a VAT rate hike and other tax measures.
- Outcomes:
- Helped avoid a cutoff of structural EU funds.
- Helped avoid a sovereign credit rating downgrade to non-investment status.
Inflation and prices
- Headline inflation projection:
- Expected to remain elevated until mid-2026.
- Main contributors: the VAT rate hike and the end of energy price caps.
Key statistics and publication metadata
- Publication title: Romania: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania
- Publication date: November 14, 2025
- Pages: 58
- Series: Country Report No. 2025/294
- Volume: 2025
- Issue: 294
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229031547.002
- ISBN: 9798229031547
- ISSN: 1934-7685
- Subjects: Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, Inflation, Prices, Public debt
- Keywords: Europe, exchange rate, Financial Sector Assessment Program, Fiscal consolidation, Fund holding, Global, IMF-World Bank mission, Inflation, inflation expectation
International Monetary Fund. Romania: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania. IMF Staff Country Reports 2025, 294 (2025).
Content in this bundle
- 1rouea2025001-source-pdf