Book Review: Warmer World Slower Growth by Simon Black

Source details

Canonical URL

Book Review: Warmer World Slower Growth by Simon Black

Other formats

• Markdown version
• Structured JSON version
• Bundle manifest

Bibliographic details

• Authors: SIMON BLACK
• Published: March 4, 2024

Main thesis

• Climate change is described as "one of the most significant threats facing the global economy."
• The reviewed book, Slow Burn: The Hidden Costs of a Warming World (R. Jisung Park), documents "slow-burning effects" of warming already affecting human welfare and the economy, from worsening inequality to declining productivity and economic growth.
• Park emphasizes that adaptation can limit harms and that a "slow-burning perspective" helps avoid fatalism and sustain "sober resolve, compassion for those most vulnerable, and a sense of active hope."

Key findings and documented channels of impact

• Heat can significantly hinder human performance across diverse activities, including:
  • standardized exams,
  • professional tennis,
  • manufacturing.
• Temperature-driven effects already observed or documented:
  • Increasing temperatures causally raise workplace injury risk.
  • Increasing temperatures causally raise mortality.
  • Increasing temperatures causally raise crime rates.
  • Declining productivity and economic growth linked to higher temperatures.
  • Worsening inequality: poorer countries and poorer populations within countries are more vulnerable.
• Distributional consequences:
  • The poorest countries—“which contributed the least to the problem”—are more vulnerable to climate effects.
  • Within countries, the poor are more concentrated in hotter regions and more vulnerable to climate-related shocks such as heat stress.
  • Climate change may "significantly alter the economic playing field" by creating winners (those able to adapt) and losers (those who cannot).

Projections and quantitative statements (preserved exactly)

• According to the World Meteorological Organization, temperatures are likely to increase to more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels within the coming five years.
• Even with moderate strengthening of global mitigation policy, temperatures are expected to increase by more than 3°C by 2100.
• A United Nations survey found two-thirds of the global population believe that climate change is a global emergency.
• Book details preserved: Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2024, 336 pp., $29.95.

Uncertainties and scope

• The effects of climate change are uncertain, with "significant variation even within neighborhoods, companies, and families."
• Ripple effects of impacts like injury, mortality, and crime are uncertain, but "without significant adaptations they are likely to get worse as the planet continues to warm."

Policy implications and recommendations (author’s perspective)

• Adaptation is essential: it is "not too late" to limit global warming while becoming much more resilient to slow-burning effects through adaptation.
• Emphasize a slow-burning perspective to:
  • Avoid doomsday fatalism.
  • Foster sober resolve and compassion for the most vulnerable.
  • Promote active hope and practical policy responses focused on mitigation and adaptation.

Author and provenance notes

• Review author: SIMON BLACK, economist in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department.
• Opinions expressed are those of the author and "do not necessarily reflect IMF policy."

F&D Magazine — Warmer World, Slower Growth — SIMON BLACK, March 2024.

Content in this bundle

• Book Reviews: Warmer World, Slower Growth
  • Book Reviews: Warmer World, Slower Growth (Markdown version)
  • Book Reviews: Warmer World, Slower Growth (PDF)