Selected Issues Papers
IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries.
2023
July 13, 2023
Lessons from the United Kingdom’s Liability – Driven Investment (LDI) Crisis: United Kingdom
Description: This paper seeks a deeper understanding of the factors that amplified the gilt market turmoil, which ultimately led the Bank of England (BoE) to undertake temporary gilt purchases on financial stability grounds in late September/early October 2022 to restore orderly market conditions and allow Liability Driven Investment (LDI) funds some time to build their capital positions. This paper identifies the key reasons for the success of the BoE’s intervention. This paper also discusses key gaps and policy issues related to monitoring financial stability risks in the broader NBFI sector for individual jurisdictions and international standard-setting bodies.
July 13, 2023
Enhancing Business Investment in the United Kingdom
Description: The paper addresses the issue of weak business investment in the United Kingdom (UK) by analyzing aggregate investment trends in the UK and other G7 peers, and investment drivers for UK firms. Data show that business investment has been structurally low in the UK, and likely the key driver of the UK’s relatively weaker growth performance since the middle of the last decade. Econometric investigations confirm a negative impact of Brexit-related uncertainty, the importance of financing constraints on firms, and a complementary role for public capital.
July 13, 2023
The Recent Decline in United Kingdom Labor Force Participation: Causes and Potential Remedies
Description: This paper studies the puzzling decline in labor force participation observed in the UK following the pandemic. Retirement and long-term sickness appear to be the main drivers, with chronic illness remaining a lingering distinctive factor vis-a-vis peer countries. While the government has recently adopted a battery of measures to increase labor force participation, more could be done to improve health outcomes and increase the participation of the long-term sick and the disabled, keep older workers in the labor force, increase female labor force participation, and improve the skills and productivity of both domestic and foreign workers that join the workforce.
July 13, 2023
The Energy Price Shock—Impact, Policy Responses, and Reform Options: United Kingdom
Description: The surge in energy prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine inflicted a sharp terms of trade shock on the UK economy. While energy prices have since declined, the future energy price path remains uncertain, with futures-implied prices substantially above their levels prior to October 2021, when Russian natural gas imports to Europe began to be curtailed. In this context, section I analyzes the impact of the energy price shock on UK households and firms; section II describes the energy support measures introduced by the UK government; and section III provides staff’s assessment of these measures and sets out some options to optimize the policy response to a possible resurgence in energy prices. These include structural measures to ensure energy security and raise resilience to spikes in energy prices, and options to refine, especially the targeting of, support measures that could be introduced in response.
July 11, 2023
Optimal Fiscal Path Considerations: Portugal
Description: Despite achieving a rapid reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years, Portugal's debt ratio remains relatively high at 113.9 percent of GDP in end-2022. This paper employs an analytical model to determine the appropriate trajectory for structural consolidation to sustain ambitious debt reduction over the medium term, taking into account the uncertainties in the economic landscape. The model points to a need for continued fiscal tightening between 2024 and 2028. Optimal consolidation would be higher under higher longterm interest rates, lower medium-term growth prospects, or increased market sensitivity to debt.
July 11, 2023
Household Vulnerabilities, Financial Stability, and the Role of Policies in Portugal
Description: Since the pandemic, developments in the real estate market in Portugal suggest that housing vulnerabilities have increased. Rising living costs and interest rates are stretching household finances which could cause an increase in defaults or force households to cut back on consumption. Simulation results suggest that, under adverse conditions, almost half of all households could be financially stretched with a disproportionate effect on lower income households. In addition, one third of consumers may need to adjust spending although the estimated reduction in aggregate consumption is limited. The impact on the banking system is manageable but a sharp house price correction could have a material impact on capital buffers. Policy support aimed at tacking the cost of living crisis could help mitigate some of these risks.
July 11, 2023
Labor Market and Digitalization in Portugal
Description: This paper analyzes Portugal's labor market and digitalization trends during COVID-19. Portugal had a milder impact on its labor market than previous recessions, with smaller employment declines and less unemployment. However, labor force participation sharply dropped, especially among low-skilled and young workers. Contact-intensive and non-digital jobs and young and low-skilled workers were disproportionately affected. Conversely, digital employment in Portugal grew while non-digital employment decreased. Regression analysis for Europe and the US suggests a temporary rise in digital employment during the pandemic. Policy emphasis on digitalization investments and skills development is crucial for a resilient labor market in Portugal, considering future shocks.
July 10, 2023
Inflation in Portugal: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Risks
Description: This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022. Our estimated Phillips curve regression suggests that, similarly to other Euro Area countries, inflation in Portugal has been largely driven by food and external prices pressures. Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting receding energy prices and anchored inflation expectations. However, uncertainty remains high and inflation could remain elevated, especially if the inflationary process became backward looking or wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.
July 7, 2023
Causes and Implications of Elevated Inflation in Cyprus
Description: Inflation has risen sharply in Cyprus, initially driven by imported prices, but increasingly broadening to domestic prices. A Phillips Curve estimate attributes the high inflation largely to energy prices, external price pressures, and inflation expectations at the end of 2022. Historically high pass-through of inflation shocks to wages—amplified by a tight labor market—may make inflation persistent. This calls for policies to stem inflationary pressures while protecting vulnerable households.
July 7, 2023
Residential Property Price Developments and (Mis)alignments in Cyprus
Description: Residential house prices in Cyprus show no signs of overvaluation in international comparison, and various indicators confirm that prices are aligned with economic fundamentals. However, still-high household debt poses a risk. Regional disparities raise some concerns about affordability, notably in Limassol, calling for supply-side measures to increase housing supply.