World Economic Outlook, April 2019 : Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery
World Economic Outlook, April 9, 2019
Source details
- Canonical URL
- World Economic Outlook, April 2019 : Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
- Published: April 9, 2019
- Series: World Economic Outlook
Overview of recent global developments
- After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies.
- China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States.
- The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards.
- Investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened.
- External demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened.
- Natural disasters hurt activity in Japan.
- Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand.
- Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.
Key findings and indicators
- Pages: 216
- Series: World Economic and Financial Surveys
- ISBN: 9781484397480
- ISSN: 0256-6877
- Stock No: WEOEA2019001
- Keywords: advanced economy, capital goods, corporate market power, develop economy, emerge market, gdp, global growth, growth, investment, labor income, macroeconomics, market power, monopoly, outlook, prices, risks, tariffs, WEO
Analytical drivers highlighted
- Regulatory tightening in China aimed at rein in shadow banking contributed to slower growth.
- Escalating trade tensions with the United States reduced business confidence and external demand.
- Supply-side disruption in Germany’s car production due to new emission standards weakened euro area performance.
- Widening sovereign spreads in Italy were associated with reduced investment.
- Financial conditions tightened sequentially: vulnerable emerging markets in spring 2018, then advanced economies later in 2018.
- Policy signaling in 2019 (US Federal Reserve more accommodative) and improved trade negotiation sentiment helped ease conditions, though conditions remained slightly more restrictive than in the fall.
Implications for policy and outlook
- Monetary policy accommodation signaled by the US Federal Reserve in 2019 contributed to easing financial conditions.
- Progress toward a US–China trade deal improved market optimism and helped ease conditions in 2019.
- Continued monitoring of sovereign spreads, regulatory tightening effects, trade tensions, and external demand—particularly from emerging Asia—is implied by the drivers of the slowdown.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. World Economic Outlook, April 2019 : Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2019) accessed 8/31/2026