Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia
IMF Working Papers, May 9, 2014
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Alberto Behar, Jaime Espinosa-Bowen
- Published: May 9, 2014
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484380796.001
Summary of research question and approach
- Quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.
- Uses estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP to assess responsiveness of export categories.
Key empirical findings
- Non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive to trading partner GDP.
- Service exports are less responsive to trading partner GDP.
- Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance.
- The possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports.
- Regional sensitivities:
- Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe.
- CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.
Policy-relevant implications
- Monitoring and stress-testing export exposure to trading-partner GDP shocks is important for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.
- Diversification away from trade linkages concentrated in vulnerable trading partners (e.g., Europe for the Maghreb; BRICS for CCA countries) could reduce export downside risks.
- Differentiated approaches may be warranted given varying responsiveness across export categories (non-oil goods versus services).
Key publication metadata (as stated in the source)
- Authors: Alberto Behar, Jaime Espinosa-Bowen
- Date: May 9, 2014
- Pages: 31
- Series: Working Paper No. 2014/080
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484380796.001
Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia — Alberto Behar; Jaime Espinosa-Bowen; IMF Working Paper No. 2014/080; May 9, 2014.