Identifying the Linkages between Major Mining Commodity Prices and China’s Economic Growth—Implications for Latin America
April 1, 2011
Download PDF
More Formats on IMF eLibrary
Order a Print CopyDisclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary
Major mining commodity prices are inherently volatile and cyclical. High levels of investment in China have been a key driver in the strong world demand for minerals and metals over the past decade. The urbanization and industrialization of China has been an important factor behind the increase in domestic demand and high investment growth, while its export sector is also an important source of growth and plays a critical role as a catalyst. Activity in infrastructure, construction, real estate, and automobile manufacturing all contribute to the strong demand for minerals. Over the next five years, the Chinese demand is expected to remain strong, supported by investment and gradually rising consumption rates. However, in the second part of this decade economic growth in China could slow down. For Latin American countries, export receipts should remain strong over the next five years and beyond, given the continued strong demand from China.
Subject: Commodities, Consumption, Copper, Exports, Imports
Keywords: China, commodity, consumer spending, demand, import, price, WP
Pages:
36
Volume:
2011
DOI:
Issue:
086
Series:
Working Paper No. 2011/086
Stock No:
WPIEA2011086
ISBN:
9781455226023
ISSN:
1018-5941
