Precautionary Savings and Global Imbalances in World General Equilibrium
June 1, 2011
Download PDF
More Formats on IMF eLibrary
Order a Print CopyDisclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary
In this paper we assess the implications of precautionary savings for global imbalances by considering a world economy model composed by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, China, oil-exporting countries, and the rest of the world. These areas are assumed to differ only with respect to GDP volatility which is calibrated based on the 1980-2008 period. The model predicts a wide dispersion in net foreign asset positions, with the highly volatile oil-exporting countries accumulating very large asset holdings. While heterogeneity in GDP volatility may lead to large imbalances in international investment positions, its impact on current accounts is much weaker. This is because countries are expected to move towards their optimal NFA at a very slow pace.
Subject: Current account, Current account imbalances, Current account surpluses, Foreign assets, Precautionary savings
Keywords: NFA position, WP
Pages:
18
Volume:
2011
DOI:
Issue:
122
Series:
Working Paper No. 2011/122
Stock No:
WPIEA2011122
ISBN:
9781455263394
ISSN:
1018-5941
