Understanding China’s 2024–25 Frontloading from the Lens of Product-Level Export Baskets

IMF Working Papers, January 23, 2026

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Canonical URL: Understanding China’s 2024–25 Frontloading from the Lens of Product-Level Export Baskets

A striking feature of US-China trade tensions in mid-2025 is China’s acceleration of exports to the US ahead of new tariff increases, a phenomenon the authors term export frontloading.
The paper develops a factor model analytical framework to characterize China’s product-level exports, across time and destinations, according to a set of latent export baskets.
Data source: China’s General Administration of Customs.
The paper documents the channels behind the 2024-25 episode and compares them with the 2018 US-China trade tensions.

Analytical framework: factor model that characterizes product-level exports by latent export baskets across time and destinations.
Data: product-level export data from China’s General Administration of Customs.

Broad-based adjustments across multiple dimensions in 2024–25 not observed in 2018:
- (i) Shipments to the US accelerated in the second half of 2024, possibly supported by the retention of intermediate inputs that facilitated a ramp-up in domestic production.
- (ii) From January 2025, domestic production slowed and shipments of intermediate inputs to Vietnam and other ASEAN economies accelerated, consistent with the relocation of export-oriented manufacturing following US tariffs.
- (iii) Exporters prioritized shipments to the US through March 2025, reallocating flows away from third destinations with similar export profiles.
- (iv) As shipments to the US fell sharply in April-May amid the escalation of reciprocal tariffs, the decline was offset by increased shipments to third destinations consistent with fulfilling previously deferred orders.

Subject areas: Econometric analysis, Exports, Factor models, Imports, International trade, Tariffs, Taxes, Trade tensions.
Geographic focus: Asia and Pacific; global implications through trade reallocation and production relocation.
Keywords preserved from the source: China’s acceleration, export basket, Export Frontloading, Exports, Factor models, Global, IMF working papers, Imports, Production Relocation, Tariffs, Trade Tariffs, trade tension, Trade tensions.