Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey

 
Author/Editor: Leigh, Daniel ; Rossi, Marco
 
Publication Date: December 01, 2002
 
Electronic Access: Free Full text (PDF file size is 864KB).
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

 
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
 
Summary: Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in Turkey. We find that (i) the forecasting ability of individual indicators is unstable; but that (ii) a suitable combination of these unstable forecasts yields a forecast that reliably outperforms that generated by an autoregressive model. We then propose a two-stage combination forecast obtained by taking the median of the top five performing individual forecasts. This two-stage forecast reliably improves on autoregressive benchmarks and outperforms the combination forecast based on all the individual forecasts.
 
Series: Working Paper No. 02/231
Subject(s): Economic growth | Turkey | Inflation targeting | Economic indicators

Author's Keyword(s): Growth inflation | combination forecasts | leading indicators | inflation targeting | Turkey
 
English
Publication Date: December 01, 2002
ISBN/ISSN: 1934-7073 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2312002 Pages: 26
Price:
US$15.00 (Academic Rate:
US$15.00 )
 
 
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org