Forecasting Thailand’s Core Inflation
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Summary:
This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evolution. This involves combining a short-term model, which attempts to distill the forecasting power of a variety of monthly indicators purely on goodness-of-fit criteria, with an equilibrium-correction model that pins down the convergence of core inflation to its longer-run structural determinants. The result is a promising model for forecasting Thai core inflation over horizons up to 10, 24, and 55 months, based on a root mean-squared error criterion as well as a mean absolute error criterion.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2004/090
Subject:
Consumer price indexes Economic forecasting Import price indexes Inflation Price indexes
English
Publication Date:
May 1, 2004
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451851427/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA0902004
Pages:
28
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