IMF Staff Country Reports

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Debt Sustainability Analysis

Publication Date:

January 28, 2005

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

This paper presents key findings of debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Ethiopia. The stress tests reveal that Ethiopia’s external debt and debt service indicators are particularly sensitive to the terms of new borrowing and negative export shocks. The baseline projections appear fragile to adverse shocks and embody optimistic assumptions relative to Ethiopia’s historical trend over the past 10 years. The public debt DSA indicates some risk arising from output growth and the primary balance remaining at historical averages.

Series:

Country Report No. 2005/027

Subject:

Debt sustainability analysis Exports External debt Fiscal policy Fiscal stance International trade Public debt