Analyzing Determinants of Inflation When There Are Data Limitation:The Case of Sierra Leone

 
Author/Editor: Gottschalk, Jan ; Kalonji, Kadima D. ; Miyajima, Ken
 
Publication Date: December 01, 2008
 
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Summary: This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Sierra Leone using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) approach to help forecast inflation for operational purposes. Despite data limitations, the paper accurately models inflation in Sierra Leone. As economic theory predicts, domestic inflation is found to increase with higher oil prices, higher money supply, and nominal exchange rate depreciation. The paper then employs a historical decomposition approach to pinpoint the sources of a marked decline in inflation in 2006 and assesses its forecasting properties. Overall, the model serves as a useful addition to the toolkit for analyzing and forecasting inflation in countries with limited data availability.
 
Series: Working Paper No. 08/271
Subject(s): Inflation | Sierra Leone | Data analysis | Economic forecasting | Oil prices | Money supply | Exchange rate depreciation | Forecasting models

Author's Keyword(s): Historical decomposition | impulse response | inflation | variance decomposition | vector autoregression (VAR)
 
English
Publication Date: December 01, 2008
Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2008271 Pages: 40
Price:
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
US$18.00 )
 
 
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