Emerging Asia’s Impact on Australian Growth: Some Insights From GEM

November 1, 2010

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Format: Chicago

Benjamin L Hunt. Emerging Asia’s Impact on Australian Growth: Some Insights From GEM, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2010) accessed September 18, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia’s growth differential has had on Australia. The simulation analysis, which replicates some key features from the last decade, suggests that roughly 25 percent of Australia's growth over the last decade has been from emerging Asia’s growth differential over that period. Looking ahead, the analysis suggests that should emerging Asia continue to grow in a similar fashion, Australia’s growth dividend could almost double. On the other hand, if growth in emerging Asia remained strong, but became more balanced across the tradable and nontradable goods sectors then Australia’s growth dividend would be slightly lower than the estimate for the last decade.

Subject: Commodities, Exchange rates, Productivity, Real effective exchange rates, Real exchange rates

Keywords: Commodity export, Export price, Productivity growth, Terms of trade, Tradable commodity good, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

25
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2010/262
Stock No:

WPIEA2010262
ISBN:

9781455210695
ISSN:

1018-5941

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