IMF Working Papers

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

By Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Juan Angel Garcia

June 21, 2018

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Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, and Juan Angel Garcia. Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2018) accessed September 18, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.

Subject: Import prices, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Monetary policy frameworks, Oil prices, Prices

Keywords: ASEAN countries, Global, Import inflation, Import prices, Inflation, Inflation dynamics, Inflation expectation, Inflation expectations, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Monetary policy frameworks, Oil prices, Phillips curve, Price inflation, Trend inflation estimate, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    37

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2018/147

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2018147

  • ISBN:

    9781484363041

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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