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Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting

Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

Deadline passed

Session No.: JV 22.39

Location: Vienna, Austria

Date: November 28, 2022 - December 9, 2022 (2 weeks)

Primary Language: English

    Target Audience

    Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.

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    Qualifications

    Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course or the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting(MPAFx)course. Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

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    Course Description

    "Disclosure: Due to COVID 19, courses will be delivered in person, hybrid, or virtual, according to safety guidelines. As of today, this course is scheduled to be delivered in person in Vienna, but its delivery method may change. By submitting your application, you confirm your availability to participate in the course either in person or virtually. Up-to-date Covid-19 vaccination is likely to be required and related information may be requested from participants for in-person courses."

    This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting. It emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country’s economy. Country case studies are used to reinforce participant understanding and to help them compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

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    Course Objectives

    Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

    • Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
    • Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model.
    • Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
    • Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables e.g. output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
    • Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
    • Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis using their own national data when they return home.
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