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Financial Sector Policies

Virtual : Advanced Macro-Stress Testing (MST)

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Session No.: ST 20.38V

Location: Singapore, Singapore

Date: December 1-4, 2020 (1 week)

Primary Language: English

    Target Audience

    Mid-level to senior officials working on financial supervision or financial stability in central banks or other supervisory authorities.

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    Participants are expected to have experience with stress testing, Basel regulations, and financial stability analysis.

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    Course Description

    This course, presented by the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM), discusses recent developments in stress testing for banks with a special focus on the implications of COVID-19. It gives participants the opportunity to learn and apply new tools used or created by MCM for the purposes of stress testing and systemic risk analysis. In addition, the course will present recent regulatory and supervisory reactions to COVID-19, such as the release of macroprudential buffers, adaptations of the Leverage Ratio and the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy with regulatory and supervisory policies. Participants are invited to discuss the recent regulatory and policy changes adopted in light of COVID-19 and their implications for the countries in South-East Asia. The course will discuss how to apply the models and concepts presented in the course to evaluate these measures. Moreover, the course allows participants to share their experiences on stress testing methodologies and COVID-19 analysis and learn about new models and tools developed in the regional central banks and supervisory agencies.

     The course reviews stress testing models and scenario design for both, solvency and liquidity stress tests. During the first three days of the course several stress testing topics will be presented by lectures covering macro-financial models, designing scenarios, selecting assumptions, running tests, integrating feedback loops between financial and real sectors, and incorporating them in policy decision making.  Based on these methods, the role of capital and liquidity buffers to address the fall-out of the COVID-19 shock will form the core of the course. The course concludes with a one-day roundtable of presentations and discussion where invited external speakers exchange knowledge and share country experiences.

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    Course Objectives

    Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

    • Identify main sources of financial stability risk.
    • Summarize the principles for developing macro-financial stress scenarios.
    • Link changes in macroeconomic and financial variables with financial results and measure their relative impact.
    • Assess the resilience of individual entities and the financial system to solvency and liquidity stress.
    • Develop and incorporate models that are capturing second round effects or interactions between different risk types.
    • Have a good overview over COVID-19 related capital and liquidity measures and their motivation.
    • Understand the distributional effects and trade-offs associated with regulatory and supervisory COVID-19 measures.
    • Employ the logic of the models to evaluate the costs and benefits of COVID-19 related measures in terms of resilience versus macro-financial feedbacks.
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