7th IMF Statistical Forum: Measuring the Informal Economy

November 14-15, 2019

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    Agenda

    Location: IMF Headquarters 2, Conference Halls 1 & 2

     Thursday, November 14, 2019
     8:00 am Registration and Continental Breakfast 
     9:15 a.m

    Introduction to the Forum

    Mr. David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF

     9:30 a.m.

    Keynote Address (via video)

    Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF

     9:45 a.m.

    Session I: Definition and Scope of the Informal Economy

    Chair: Mr. Louis Marc Ducharme, Chief Statistician and Data Officer, and Director, Statistics Department, IMF

    Mr. Friedrich Schneider (Austria, Johannes Kepler University) with Mr. Leandro Medina, Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database

    Paper | Presentation

    Mr. Ibrahima Tall (National Agency for Statistics and Demography of Senegal) with Mr. Ahmadou Aly Mbaye, Conceptualizing the Informal Sector: Analysis and Application to Francophone Africa

    Presentation

     10:40 a.m. Coffee Break
     11:10 a.m. Mr. Michael Frosch (International Labour Organization), Revision of the Standards for Statistics on Informality

    Presentation

    Ms. Jennifer Ribarsky, Mr. Thomas Alexander, and Mr. Gabriel Quirós-Romero (IMF), State of Play: Importance, Conceptual Fragmentation, and Weak Data Sources

    Presentation

    Audience Questions

     12:30 p.m. Lunch
     1:45 p.m.

    Session II: Standard Estimation Practices—Determining the Level and Growth of the Informal Economy

    Chair: Ms. Sharmini Coorey, Director, Institute for Capacity Development, IMF

    Mr. François Roubaud (French Research Institute for Sustainable Development, France), with Ms. Nghiêm Thị Vân, Measuring the Non-Observed Economy in Vietnam: A Focus on Informal Economy

    PaperPresentation

    Mr. Federico Sallusti (Italian National Institute of Statistics), Detecting Under-Reporting of Value Added and VAT Fraud in National Accounts

    PaperPresentation

    Mr. Venkata Ramana Murthy Salapaka (India, National Statistical Office), Measuring Informal Economy in India

    PaperPresentation

    Audience Questions

     3:30 p.m. Coffee Break
     4:00 p.m.

    Session II (continued): Standard Estimation Practices—Determining the Level and Growth of the Informal Economy

    Chair: Mr. Abebe Selassie, Director, African Department, IMF

    Ms. Shu Yu (World Bank), with Mr. Ceyhun Elgin, Mr. Ayhan Kose, Ms. Franziska Ohnsorge, Shades of Grey: Measuring the Informal Economy Business Cycles

    Paper | Presentation

    Ms. Lisa Grace S. Bersales (University of the Philippines School of Statistics), with Ms. Vivian R. Ilarina, Measuring the Contribution of the Informal Sector to the Philippine Economy: Current Practices and Challenges

    Paper | Presentation

    Mr. Francisco Guillen (Mexico, INEGI), Measurement of the Informal Economy. From Basic to Derived Statistics

    Paper | Presentation

    Discussant: Mr. Sanjiv Mahajan, Head of International Strategy and Coordination, Office for National Statistics, UK

    Presentation

    Audience Questions

     6:15 p.m. Cocktail Reception
     Friday, November 15, 2019
     8:45 a.m.

    Session III: New Techniques, New Technologies, and New Potential Data Sources

    Chair: Mr. Jihad Azour, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF

    Mr. Frederico Lima and Mr. Gene Leon (IMF), Estimating Economic Activity in Zimbabwe Using Big Data

    Presentation

    Mr. Erick Rangel-Gonzalez (Mexico, Central Bank of Mexico), with Mr. Irving Llamosas-Rosas, An Alternative Method to Measure Non-Registered Economic Activity in Mexico Using Satellite Nightlights

    PaperPresentation

    Mr. Ricardo Valencia Ramírez (Colombia, National Administrative Department of Statistics), with Mr. Juan Oviedo Arango, Informality in Data: A Case Study in the Use of Multidimensional Measure to Capture the Formalization Process

    Presentation

    Ms. Nan Liu (China, National Bureau of Statistics), China’s Experiences in Estimating the Informal Economy

    PaperPresentation

    Audience Questions

     11:00 a.m. Coffee Break
     11:30 a.m.

    Session IV: Measuring Illicit Flows

    Chair: Mr. Ceda Ogada, Deputy General Counsel, Legal Department, IMF

    Ms. Irmgard Zeiler (UN Office on Drugs and Crime) with Mr. Federico Sallusti, Mr. Alexander Kamprad, and Mr. Enrico Bisogno, Measuring Illegal Economic Activities and Illicit Financial Flows: Challenges and Possible Solutions

    PaperPresentation

    Mr. Sugata Marjit (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, Kolkata, India) with Mr. Amit Biswas, Mr. Sandip Sarkar, Misinvoicing Trade & Informal Capital Movements: The USA - India Case

    PaperPresentation

    Ms. Rachel Soloveichik (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis), Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Accounts

    PaperPresentation

    Ms. Sarah Atkinson (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis), Toward Developing Estimates of U.S. Imports of Illegal Drugs

    PaperPresentation

    Audience Questions

     1:30 p.m. Lunch
     2:45 p.m.

    Session V: Forum Takeaways and Discussion Panel

    Chair: Mr. Gerry Rice, Director, Communications Department, IMF

    Panelists: Ms. Lisa Grace S. Bersales (University of the Philippines), Mr. Gabriel Quirós-Romero (IMF), and Ms. Irmgard Zeiler (UN Office on Drugs
    and Crime)

    Audience Questions

     4:00 p.m.

    Closure of Forum—Mr. Louis Marc Ducharme

     

    ORGANIZERS: Gabriel Quirós Romero, Thomas F. Alexander

    E-MAIL: STAForum@imf.org