United Arab Emirates: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
IMF Staff Country Reports, August 4, 2015
Source details
- Canonical URL
- United Arab Emirates: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: August 4, 2015
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513587042.002
Executive summary and key findings
- The United Arab Emirates has continued to benefit from its perceived safe haven status and large fiscal and external buffers that have helped limit negative spillovers from lower oil prices, sluggish global growth, and volatility in emerging market economies.
- Non-oil growth remained robust at 4.8 percent in 2014, driven by construction.
- The economic outlook is expected to moderate amid lower oil prices.
- Non-oil growth is projected to slow to 3.4 percent in 2015, before increasing to 4.6 percent by 2020, supported by the implementation of mega projects and private investment in the run-up to Expo 2020.
Macroeconomic projections and outlook
- 2014 non-oil growth: 4.8 percent.
- 2015 non-oil growth (projected): 3.4 percent.
- 2020 non-oil growth (projected): 4.6 percent.
- Downside pressures identified: lower oil prices, sluggish global growth, volatility in emerging market economies.
- Mitigating factors identified: perceived safe haven status, large fiscal buffers, large external buffers, implementation of mega projects, private investment related to Expo 2020.
Financial sector and policy themes
- Subject keywords associated with analysis: Commercial banks; Expenditure; Financial institutions; Financial regulation and supervision; International organization; Liquidity requirements; Loans; Monetary policy; Oil prices; Prices.
- Additional keywords noted: Commercial banks; Global; government deficit financing; IMF staff estimate; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Liquidity requirements; Loans; money market rate; Oil prices; U.A.E dirham.