Islamic Republic of Afghanistan : 2017 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Author/Editor:

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publication Date:

December 14, 2017

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Summary:

Context: Despite the sharp drawdown of NATO troops in 2014 and the deteriorated security situation, the National Unity Government (NUG) is making good progress in economic reforms and growth has picked up modestly. The coming electoral cycle is expected to usher in a period of political uncertainty, leading to a more difficult environment for reform implementation. The donor community continues to actively support Afghanistan, as demonstrated by the successful donor conference in October 2016, while the U.S. government recently reaffirmed its continued military support. Outlook and risks: The baseline scenario envisages growth at 2.5 to 3 percent in 2017– 18, too low to prevent unemployment from rising further. Inflation is expected to be modest, and buffers should remain comfortable. The outlook is subject to significant downside risks, including a possible further deterioration in the security environment, a shortfall in grants, or stalled reforms. The key upside risk is lasting peace, which would boost inclusive growth.

Series:

Country Report No. 17/377

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

December 14, 2017

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484332863/1934-7685

Stock No:

1AFGEA2017002

Format:

Paper

Pages:

127

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