Ghana: 2019 Article IV Consultation; Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana
IMF Staff Country Reports, December 18, 2019
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- Ghana: 2019 Article IV Consultation; Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana
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Bibliographic details
- Published: December 18, 2019
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513523347.002
Overview
- This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Ghana focuses on strengthening institutions and policies to preserve macroeconomic stability and promote inclusive growth, building on the authorities’ “Ghana beyond Aid” strategy.
- The report highlights that the government headline deficit is projected to reach 4.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2019.
- Medium-term prospects are characterized as favorable, with robust growth driven mostly by the extractive sector.
- Pages: 88; Volume: 2019; Issue: 367; Series: Country Report No. 2019/367; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513523347.002; ISBN: 9781513523347; ISSN: 1934-7685; Stock No: 1GHAEA2019002.
Fiscal outlook and risks
- Government headline deficit projected to reach 4.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2019.
- Drivers of the 2019 deficit:
- lower-than-expected revenues,
- spending on flagship programs,
- unexpected security outlays due to emerging security challenges in the region.
- Main risks to the baseline scenario:
- Election-related spending pressures in 2020 constitute the main risk.
- Fiscal risks in the financial and energy sectors could also impact the government deficit.
- Government borrowing needs are exposed to rollover risk that should be carefully managed as financing conditions could tighten.
- The commitment to the new fiscal rules is expected to help maintain fiscal discipline, as reflected in the unchanged policy baseline.
- Recommendation: A more ambitious fiscal stance is called for to reduce macroeconomic risks, accelerate debt reduction, and strengthen the external balance.
Growth, external sector, and financing
- Medium-term prospects are favorable, with robust growth driven mostly by the extractive sector.
- External balance considerations:
- Strengthening the external balance is a stated policy objective linked to a more ambitious fiscal stance.
- Financing conditions:
- Government borrowing needs face rollover risk; careful management is advised as financing conditions could tighten.
Policy recommendations and institutional priorities
- Strengthen institutions and policies to preserve macroeconomic stability and promote inclusive growth.
- Build on the authorities’ “Ghana beyond Aid” strategy.
- Implement and adhere to the new fiscal rules to maintain fiscal discipline.
- Adopt a more ambitious fiscal stance to:
- reduce macroeconomic risks,
- accelerate debt reduction,
- strengthen the external balance.
- Manage government borrowing and rollover risks proactively, especially in light of potential tightening in financing conditions.
- Address fiscal risks in the financial and energy sectors to contain their impact on the government deficit.
International Monetary Fund. Ghana: 2019 Article IV Consultation; Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana, IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 367 (2019).
Content in this bundle
- 1ghaea2019002