Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Staff Report on the Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community

IMF Staff Country Reports, January 22, 2021

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Canonical URL: Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Staff Report on the Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community

The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC.
The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region.
The policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout.
With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23).
Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic.
Net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations.
Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020.
The outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices.

Delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs.
Difficulties in filling large external financing needs.
A deterioration in the security situation.
Continued uncertainty over the trajectory of oil prices and pandemic developments.

National and regional authorities implemented policy responses that, together with Fund emergency financing, mitigated the initial fallout from COVID-19.
Slower fiscal and external adjustments implied by lower medium-term oil prices increase financing needs and place pressure on reserves and net foreign assets.
Elevated public debt levels, despite an expected declining trend after 2020, underscore the need for fiscal consolidation and external financing strategies.