Guatemala: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 7, 2022
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- Guatemala: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex
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Bibliographic details
- Published: June 7, 2022
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400212215.002
Overview
- The economy showed "remarkable resilience" during the pandemic, driven by "policy support, favorable credit conditions and a favorable external environment."
- The level of GDP has "almost returned the level of GDP to its pre-pandemic projected trend."
- The outlook is described as "very uncertain" with "significant downside risks, mostly external."
Economic performance and near-term outlook
- Growth: "For 2022, growth is expected to moderate."
- GDP level: "almost returned the level of GDP to its pre-pandemic projected trend."
- External environment: favorable during recovery but a source of downside risks going forward (pandemic, geopolitical tensions, tightening global financial conditions).
Inflation and monetary conditions
- Headline inflation: "eased to 3 percent (the lower limit of the inflation target band) at end-2021."
- Near-term inflation: "For 2022... inflation is expected to rise in line with global inflationary pressures."
- Drivers: prevalence of domestic factors contributed to lower inflation at end-2021; global inflationary pressures expected to push inflation up in 2022.
Social indicators and structural concerns
- Social outcomes remain weak despite macro resilience:
- Poverty: "remain high."
- Malnutrition: "remain high."
Risks and uncertainty
- Principal downside risks (characterized as "mostly external"):
- The pandemic.
- Geopolitical tensions.
- The tightening of global financial conditions in response to global inflationary pressures.
- The outlook is explicitly "very uncertain" because of these risks.
Content in this bundle
- 1gtmea2022001