Switzerland: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 20, 2022
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- Switzerland: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland
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Bibliographic details
- Published: June 20, 2022
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400212956.002
Recent economic performance and recovery
- Recovery was strong in 2021.
- 2021 output was 1 percent higher than in 2019.
- 2021 output was 2 percent below pre-Covid trends.
- Unemployment is back to pre-crisis levels.
- Strong exports/merchanting led to a higher current account surplus.
Inflation and monetary policy
- Inflation has picked up: 2.5 percent in April.
- Inflation remains below that of other advanced economies.
- The Swiss National Bank is closely monitoring inflation, seeing it returning to the 0–2 percent range this year.
- Policy-related keyword noted: Policy rate hike.
Growth outlook and risks
- Growth is likely to slow to 2¼ percent in 2022.
- The war in Ukraine is estimated to cause a ¾ ppt. drag on growth in 2022.
- Risks are to the downside, including:
- war escalation,
- Covid developments,
- real estate sector developments.
External and energy exposures
- Although the energy mix (nuclear, hydro) has limited exposure to Russia, exposures of commodity traders and indirect channels could be important.
Fiscal position and public spending
- Covid outlays are lower in 2022, but still large: 1.2 percent of GDP.
- Outlays related to Ukraine are likely to be accommodated as extraordinary.
Macroprudential and financial measures
- The authorities reactivated the sectoral CCyB for residential real estate.
Structural policies and other priorities
- The authorities are pursuing:
- pension and labor reforms,
- climate initiatives,
- energy security,
- renewed EU engagement.
Content in this bundle
- 1cheea2022001