Germany: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 17, 2023
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- Germany: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 17, 2023
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400245077.002
Economic resilience after energy shock
- The German economy "has demonstrated resilience following the shut-off of Russian gas supply in the year 2022."
- The "energy shock and tightening financial conditions are expected to keep annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth slightly negative in 2023."
- "Uncertainty is unusually high, with substantial risks in both directions, which on balance are tilted downward for growth."
Growth outlook and risks
- Near-term growth: "slightly negative in 2023."
- Uncertainty: "unusually high" with "substantial risks in both directions, which on balance are tilted downward for growth."
- Downside pressures cited: energy shock, tightening financial conditions, inflation risks, rising interest rates, population aging, the green transition, and increasing risks associated with global geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF).
Fiscal policy and disinflation strategy
- Near-term policy priority: "supporting disinflation by tightening fiscal policy."
- Planned fiscal consolidation: "the planned tightening of the cyclically-adjusted primary balance by around ½ percent of GDP in 2023 will support these efforts."
- Further consolidation recommended: "An additional 1 1/2 percent of GDP in 2024 is appropriate under the baseline forecast and can be achieved mainly by saving expected underspending on energy price relief and any revenue over performance."
Assessment of policy response and recommendations
- Evaluation: "The authorities’ policy response to spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine has been timely and generally well designed."
- Continued actions needed to address:
- "inflation risks"
- "rising interest rates"
- "population aging"
- "the green transition"
- "increasing risks associated with global geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF)"
Document identifiers and metadata (excerpted)
- Pages: 92
- Volume: 2023
- Issue: 258
- Series: Country Report No. 2023/258
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400245077.002
- ISBN: 9798400245077
- ISSN: 1934-7685
- Publication date on page: July 17, 2023
International Monetary Fund. Germany: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany
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