Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
IMF Staff Country Reports, February 7, 2024
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- Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
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Bibliographic details
- Published: February 7, 2024
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400267642.002
Overview and methods
- Applies a range of quantitative methods to explain recent inflation dynamics in Kazakhstan.
- Methods used:
- Principal component analysis to decompose inflation between global, regional, and domestic sources.
- Phillips curve model, augmented with external variables, to quantify drivers of inflation.
- Vector autoregressive model to examine dynamic effects.
Key findings
- External factors have had a strong impact on inflation dynamics in Kazakhstan in the recent period.
- Domestic factors remained important contributors to inflation dynamics.
- Looking ahead, inflation in Kazakhstan will depend significantly on the global environment but will also be shaped by domestic policy decisions.
Policy recommendations and implications
- Near term:
- Premature monetary policy loosening should be avoided.
- Medium term:
- Continue efforts to strengthen the monetary policy framework to help moderate the volatility of inflation and reach the inflation target.
- Fiscal policy should remain supportive of price stability.
Content in this bundle
- Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 24/47; January 31, 2024