Belize: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

IMF Staff Country Reports, May 15, 2024

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Real gross domestic product growth and inflation moderated in 2023.
Key immediate macro-financial priorities include:
- Raising the primary balance with revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization to lower public debt to a level that provides sufficient buffers.
- Increasing expenditure in priority areas.
- Adopting growth-enhancing structural reforms.
- Building resilience to climate change and related disasters.

Fiscal policy
- Raise the primary balance through:
- Revenue mobilization.
- Expenditure rationalization.
- Reallocate resources to increase expenditure in priority areas.
- Adopt a multi-year macro-fiscal framework to underpin fiscal and disaster-resilience planning.
Structural and labor-market reforms
- Increase female labor force participation.
- Enhance access to affordable credit for small and medium size enterprises.
- Reduce crime and improve the business climate.
Climate and disaster resilience
- Adopt a disaster resilience strategy that strengthens:
- Structural resilience.
- Financial resilience.
- Post-disaster resilience.
- Base disaster resilience measures on a multi-year macro-fiscal framework.
Financial sector stability
- Keep vulnerable financial institutions under enhanced supervision.
- Request recapitalization when needed to maintain financial stability.
Monetary and exchange rate considerations
- Strengthen the currency peg by:
- Increasing international reserves by reducing public debt.
- Implementing structural reforms.
- Limiting government financing by the Central Bank.

The recommended policies would:
- Boost growth and make it more inclusive.
- Build sufficient fiscal buffers through lower public debt and higher primary balances.
- Enhance resilience to climate change and related disasters.
- Support financial stability and preserve the currency peg.