IMF Staff Country Reports

The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Djibouti discusses that the economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic for 2024 and the medium-term albeit subject to considerable uncertainty. Regional risks, including potential trade disruptions, pose challenges in a context of tight budgetary resources. Stronger-than-expected trade from Ethiopia could support growth, and fully addressing the debt burden could improve debt sustainability and create fiscal space. Growth, estimated at 7 percent in 2023, is set to remain strong at 6.5 percent in 2024. Inflation is expected to have averaged around 1.8 percent in 2023 and projected to remain subdued. While Djibouti is well positioned to benefit from a rebound in trade, its strong dependence on Ethiopian trade exposes the country to trade shocks and the outlook in Ethiopia. In the short term, concluding debt renegotiations and clearing arrears will be essential to restoring debt sustainability. In the medium and long term, entrenching sustainability will require strengthening the revenue base, including from state-owned enterprises.