IMF Staff Country Reports

The 2024 Article IV Consultation explains that China’s economy has remained resilient despite the continued weakness in the property sector, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing by 5.2 percent in 2023, and 5 percent y/y in the first half of 2024. The authorities have taken incremental policy steps to achieve these objectives, but a comprehensive and balanced policy approach is needed to manage the challenges facing the economy. GDP growth is expected to remain resilient at 5 percent in 2024 despite the continued property sector adjustment, supported by strong public investment and the ongoing recovery in private consumption. Inflation has been low in recent quarters amid considerable economic slack and is expected to pick up gradually as the output gap closes and the impact of lower commodity prices wanes. Growth is expected to slow in the medium term amid declining productivity growth and aging. The immediate priorities are to facilitate a more efficient and less costly property sector adjustment and to provide adequate macroeconomic policy support amid continued slack and elevated downside risks. Tackling the debt overhang, preventing the build-up of new risks, and fostering high-quality and sustainable growth requires comprehensive structural reforms.