Departmental Papers

Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe

ByCristina Batog, Ernesto Crivelli, Anna Ilyina, Zoltan Jakab, Jaewoo Lee, Anvar Musayev, Iva Petrova, Alasdair Scott, Anna Shabunina, Andreas Tudyka, Ruifeng Zhang

July 15, 2019

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Cristina Batog, Ernesto Crivelli, Anna Ilyina, Zoltan Jakab, Jaewoo Lee, Anvar Musayev, Iva Petrova, Alasdair Scott, Anna Shabunina, Andreas Tudyka, and Ruifeng Zhang. "Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe", Departmental Papers 2019, 011 (2019), accessed 12/4/2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498319768.087

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Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.

Subject: Aging, Health, Labor, Labor force, Population and demographics, Production, Total factor productivity

Keywords: Aging, Baltics, baseline labor force scenario, CESEE country, CESEE economy, CESEE population, CESEE workforce, current account, DP, DPPP, Eastern Europe, EU country, Europe, Global, IMF staff calculation, labor force, Labor force, labor market, per capita income, physical capital, public spending, retirement age, Total factor productivity, Western Europe, workforce aging, workforce cohort

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