IMF Fiscal Monitor -- Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks, September 2011
Fiscal Monitor, September 20, 2011
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 20, 2011
- Series: Fiscal Monitor
Overview and purpose
- The Fiscal Monitor was launched in 2009 to survey and analyze the latest public finance developments, update fiscal implications of the crisis and medium-term fiscal projections, and assess policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing.
- It is prepared twice a year by the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department.
- Publication date: September 2011.
Key cross-cutting assessment
- Despite progress in addressing key fiscal weaknesses in many countries, significant policy challenges remain in advanced, emerging, and low-income economies.
- Downside risks to growth have increased, altering the environment for fiscal policy decisions.
- The appropriate pace of adjustment in the short run depends, for each country, on:
- the intensity of the market pressure it confronts,
- the magnitude of the risks to growth it faces,
- the credibility of its medium-term program.
Advanced economies
- Many advanced economies face very large adjustment needs to reduce risks related to high debt ratios.
- The euro area needs to:
- sustain fiscal consolidation,
- minimize its growth fallout,
- address concerns about the adequacy of crisis resolution mechanisms.
- In Japan and the United States, the report emphasizes the need for sufficiently detailed and ambitious plans to reduce deficits and debts to prevent credibility from weakening.
- Figures and tables referenced for advanced economies include:
- G-7 Sovereign Bond Yields
- Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads over German Bunds
- Fiscal Fundamentals in the G-7 Economies plus Spain, 2011
- Advanced Economies: Average Bond Maturity
- Selected Advanced Economies: General Government Gross Debt
- Advanced Economies: Change in Overall Balance and General Government Gross Debt, 2010–11
- Advanced Economies: Decomposition of 2011 Debt Accumulation
- Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance That Needs to Be Maintained in 2020–30 to Achieve Debt Target by 2030
- Largest Average Primary Surplus over a 10-Year Period
Emerging economies
- Many emerging economies need to make faster progress in strengthening fiscal fundamentals before cyclical factors or spillovers from advanced economies turn against them.
- Figures and tables referenced for emerging economies include:
- Emerging Economies: Median 5-Year CDS Spreads
- Emerging Economies: Differences in Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balances, 2011, Compared with the Precrisis Period
- Determinants of Domestic Bond Yields in Emerging Economies
- Comparing Fiscal Fundamentals across Emerging Economies, 2011
- Selected Emerging Economies: Gross Financing Needs, 2011–12
- Emerging Economies: Change in Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance and in Output Gap, 2011
Low-income countries
- Low-income countries need to rebuild fiscal buffers while addressing spending needs.
- Specific topics and analyses include:
- Global Fuel and Food Price Shocks and Fiscal Performance in Low-Income Countries
- Confronting Trade-Offs: Accommodating Spending Pressures in Low-Income Countries
- Adjusting Public Capital Stock for Investment Inefficiency
Debt legacy and fiscal sustainability
- The report examines how long it will take to lower public debt and assesses the legacy of the crisis on public finances.
- Appendixes include methodological analyses such as:
- The Importance of Monitoring Both Gross and Net Debt
- Stock-Flow Adjustments and Their Determinants
- Methodological and Statistical Appendix
- Tables and indices relevant to debt and sustainability:
- The Fiscal Indicators Index
- Fiscal Indicators Index by Region, 2001–11
- Components of the Fiscal Indicators Index, 1996–2011
- Assessment of Fiscal Sustainability Risks, 2011
- Fiscal Monitor Database and Statistical Tables (General Government Balance, Primary Balance, Cyclically Adjusted Balances, Expenditure, Revenue, Gross Debt, Net Debt, Structural Fiscal Indicators)
Notable special topics, boxes, and supporting material
- Boxes and case analyses highlighted in the report include:
- United States: Government-Sponsored Enterprises and Contingent Liabilities
- Risks to the Baseline
- Fiscal Developments in Oil-Producing Economies
- Financial Sector Support and Recovery to Date
- "Fiscal Devaluation": What Is It—and Does It Work?
- Insights for Privatization Plans from Previous Large Episodes
- Technical information and user guidance provided:
- Using PDF Files
- Using CSV Files
- Viewing Webcasts
- Email notification sign-up
Contents structure (selected)
- Preface
- Executive Summary
- 1. Introduction
- 2. Restoring Order: Reassuring Markets about Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area
- 3. The Dog That Didn't Bark (So Far): Low Interest Rates in the United States and Japan
- 4. Too Good to Be True? Fiscal Developments in Emerging Economies
- 5. The Legacy of the Crisis: How Long Will It Take to Lower Public Debt?
- 6. Confronting Trade-Offs: Accommodating Spending Pressures in Low-Income Countries
- 7. Conclusion
- Appendixes and Glossary
- Figures and Tables (numerous items listed for 2010–11 and 2011–12 data)
IMF Fiscal Monitor -- Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks, September 2011
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