IMF Global Financial Stability Report: Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization
Global Financial Stability Report, April 13, 2016
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 13, 2016
- Series: Global Financial Stability Report
Overall findings and outlook
- The current report finds that global financial stability risks have risen since October 2015.
- The outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence.
- Declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets.
- These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair.
- A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability.
Chapter 1 — Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization: key findings and analysis
- Chapter 1 finds that risks to global financial stability have increased since the October 2015 Global Financial Stability Report.
- In advanced economies, the outlook has deteriorated because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence.
- Disruptions to global asset markets have added to these pressures.
- Declines in oil and commodity prices have kept risks elevated in emerging market economies.
- Greater uncertainty about China’s growth transition has increased spillovers to global markets.
- These developments tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair, undermining financial stability.
- A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability.
- Specific analytical elements included in Chapter 1:
- Simulated scenarios: "Simulated Peak Effects under Global Market Disruption Scenario" and "Simulated Peak Effects under Successful Normalization Scenario"
- Focus areas and boxes: Brazil: Financial System Risks; Impact of Low and Negative Rates on Banks; Euro Area Financial Architecture—Progress, but Gaps Remain
- Tables and figures addressing energy commodity effects, loss-of-market-access indicators, banking indicators, and numerous market and sectoral charts (e.g., Global Financial Stability Map; U.S. High-Yield Markets and Lending Conditions; China and Emerging Market Economies: Credit and Profitability).
Chapter 2 — Growing importance of financial spillovers from emerging market economies
- Chapter 2 finds that spillovers from emerging equity and foreign exchange markets have risen substantially, and now explain more than a third of the variation in asset returns in other countries.
- This underscores the importance for policymakers of taking account of economic and policy developments in emerging market economies when assessing domestic macrofinancial conditions.
- More than economic size and trade integration, the degree of financial integration matters for a country’s importance as receiver and emitter of financial spillovers.
- The level of integration explains why purely financial contagion from China remains less significant even as the impact of Chinese growth shocks is increasingly important for equity returns in both emerging market and advanced economies.
- As China’s role in the global financial system continues to grow, clear and timely communication of its policy decisions and transparency about its policy goals and strategies consistent with their achievement will be ever more important.
- Given the evident relevance of corporate leverage and mutual fund flows in amplifying spillovers of shocks, it will also be important to shape macroprudential surveillance and policies to contain systemic risks arising from these channels.
- Analytical components listed include spillover channels from China; bilateral cross-border exposure through mutual funds; measures of global financial integration and trade; and spillover indices for various asset classes and components covering periods including 1995–2014 and 2011–15.
Chapter 3 — The insurance sector: trends and systemic risk implications
- Chapter 3 shows that across advanced economies, the contribution of the insurance sector, particularly of life insurers, to systemic risk has increased, although it is not yet to the level of the banking sector.
- The increase is largely a result of growing common exposures to aggregate risk, partly because insurers’ interest rate sensitivity has risen and partly because of higher correlations across asset classes.
- In the event of an adverse shock, insurers are unlikely to fulfill their role as financial intermediaries at a time when other parts of the financial system are also struggling to do so.
- Findings imply that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
- Possible macroprudential measures and complementary steps noted:
- Regular macroprudential stress testing
- Adoption of countercyclical capital buffers
- International adoption of capital and transparency standards for the sector
- Attention by supervisors to the different behavior of smaller and weaker insurers
- Chapter 3 analytical elements include: designation of global systemically important insurers; reinsurance, retrocession, and financial stability; insurance in China; inward and outward spillovers and centrality of European insurers; and metrics such as CoVaR indices, conditional capital shortfall, and forward-looking default correlation networks.
Policy implications and recommended priorities
- Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues.
- Emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds.
- The resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced.
- Policymakers should increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies when assessing macrofinancial conditions.
- Supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the insurance sector, including stress testing and countercyclical capital buffers, and pursue international capital and transparency standards.
IMF Global Financial Stability Report: Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization, April 2016.
Content in this bundle
- boxfigure1_1_1
- Figure 1.2.1. Brazil versus Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru: Nonfinancial Corporate Fundamentals
- Figure 1.2.2. Performance of the Banking System in Brazil
- Figure 1.3.1. The Impact of "Low-for-Long" May Vary Across Countries
- Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions
- Figure 1.10. China and Emerging Markets: Credit and Profitability
- Figure 1.11. Chinese Listed Companies: Leverage, Interest Coverage, and Debt at Risk
- Figure 1.12. Chinese Listed Companies Performance
- Figure 1.13. China: Corporate Bond Issuance and Pricing
- Figure 1.14. China: Equity Markets and Exchange Rates
- Figure1 15
- Figure 1.16. Corporations, Sovereigns, and Their Nexus
- dataset overview
- Figure1 18
- Figure1 19
- Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Components of Risks and Conditions
- Figure 1.20. Falling Bank Valuations Reflect Weakening Outlook
- Figure 1.21. Valuations Reflect Legacy and Business Model Challenges
- Figure 1.3. Recent Market Developments
- Figure1 4
- Figure 1.5. Global Oil Prices, Equity, and Bond Markets
- Figure 1.6. U.S. High-Yield Markets and Lending Conditions
- Figure 1.7. Deterioration of Inflation Expectations
- Figure 1.8. Interest Rate Expectations and Bond Term Premia
- Table 1.2. Loss-of-Market Indicators
- Table 1.3. Selected Indicators of Advanced Economy Banks
- boxfigure2_1
- Figure 2.1. Trade between AEs and EMs
- Figure 2.10. EM Outward Equity Spillovers by Sector
- Figure 2.11. Chinese Industrial Sector: Equity Market Spillovers to AE Sectors
- Figure 2.12. EM Equity Market Spillovers: Role of Firm-Level Factors
- Dataset overview
- Figure 2.14. Foreign Exchange Spillovers of Selected Emerging Markets
- figure2_16 — Dataset overview
- Figure 2.16. Contributions to Variation in Bond and Equity Returns in AEs and EMs
- Figure2 2
- Figure 2.3. Global Gross Exports and Domestic Value-Added Exports
- figure2_5
- Figure 2.6. Spillover Indices for Various Asset Classes and Components
- Figure 2.8. Average Equity Spillovers from Selected EMs
- Figure 2.9. Contribution to Variation in EM Equity Spillovers, 1995�2014
- Figure 3.1.1. Typical Insurance Balance Sheet Structures
- Figure 3.2.1. Systemic Risk Category Weights for Insurers and Banks
- Dataset overview: boxfigure3_3
- Figure 3.4.1. Asset Allocations and Product Types for Insurers in China
- Figure 3.5.1. Spillover Effects and Interconnectedness of European Banks and Insurers
- Figure 3.1. Selected Countries: Relative Size of Financial Intermediaries
- Figure 3.10. Spillovers between Insurance and Other Financial Sectors
- Figure 3.11. Life Insurers' Investments
- Figure 3.12. Sensitivity of Life Insurers' Risky Assets to Firm-Level Factors
- Figure 3.13. U.S. Life Insurers' Higher-Risk Assets
- figure3_14 — Dataset overview
- figure3_15
- Figure 3.16. Compliance with Insurance Core Principles
- Figure 3.3. Global Insurance Sector Size and Market Structures
- Figure 3.4. Changing Insurance Business Models and Systemic Risk Factors
- Figure 3.5. Time-Series Clustering of Life Insurers on Equity Returns
- Figure 3.6. Variation of Insurers' Equity Return Due to First Principal Component
- Figure 3.7. CoVaR Indices
- Content unit: dataset overview
- figure3_9
- تقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي : ملخص الفصل الثاني والفصل الثالث
- ملخص واف لتقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي، عدد إبريل 2016
- Pol040416aa
- تقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي: الاقتصادات الصاعدة تؤثر على التحديات المالية العالمية
- الصندوق الدولي للنقد — نشرة الاستقرار المالي العالمي
- 2016年4月《全球金融稳定报告》第二、三章概要; 2016年3月7日
- 2016年4月《全球金融稳定报告》概要; 2016年4月13日
- Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde; April 2016 -- Synthèse des chapitres 2 et 3
- Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde
- 国際金融安定性報告書
- 国際金融安定性報告書（GFSR), 2016年4月: 要旨
- Annex Figure 1.1.1
- Annex Figure 1.1.2
- Annex Figure 1.1.3
- Annex Figure 1.2.1
- Annex Figure 1.2.2
- Figure 1.1.1
- Figure 1.2.1
- Figure 1.2.2
- Figure 1.3.1.1
- Figure 1.3.1.2
- Figure 1.10
- Figure 1.11
- Figure 1.12
- Figure 1.13
- Figure 1.14
- Figure 1.15
- Figure 1.16
- Figure 1.17
- Figure 1.18
- Figure 1.19
- Figure 1.01
- Figure 1.20
- Figure 1.21
- Figure 1.22
- Figure 1.02
- Figure 1.03
- Figure 1.04
- Figure 1.05
- Figure 1.06
- Figure 1.07
- 99932 Figure 1.08
- Figure 1.09
- Figure 2.10
- Figure 2.1.1
- Figure 2.1.2
- Figure 2.13
- Figure 2.14
- Figure 2.15
- Figure 2.16
- Figure 2.17
- Figure 2.01
- Figure 2.02
- Figure 2.03
- Figure 2.04
- Figure 2.05
- Figure 2.06
- Figure 2.07
- Figure 2.08
- Figure 2.09
- Figure 3.10
- Figure 3.1.1
- Figure 3.12
- Figure 3.13
- Figure 3.14
- Figure 3.15
- Figure 3.16
- Figure 3.01
- Figure 3.2.1
- Figure 3.2
- Figure 3.3.1-3.3.2
- Figure 3.03
- Figure 3.4.1
- Figure 3.04
- Figure 3.5.1
- Figure 3.05
- Figure 3.06
- Figure 3.07
- Figure 3.08
- Figure 3.09
- C1v4pdf
- _c2v3pdf — Chapter 2: The Growing Importance of Financial Spillovers from Emerging Market Economies
- _c3v2pdf
- Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016: Executive Summary
- Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016: Executive Summary
- Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016: Preface
- Survey Article : IMF Warns of Threats to Financial Stability
- April 2016 Global Financial Stability Report: Summaries of Chapters 2 and 3
- The Growing Importance of Financial Spillovers from Emerging Market Economies
- Chapter 3 Summary: The Insurance Sector—Trends And Systemic Risk Implications; GFSR April 2016
- Global Financial Stability Report: Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization — April 2016
- _textv2pdf — Preface and Chapter/Annex Highlights
- Предупреждающие сигналы — повышение мировых финансовых рисков; Хосе Виньялс; Блог iMFdirect;
- Резюме по главам 2 и 3 -- Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности, апрель 2016 года
- Аналитическое резюме -- Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности, апрель 2016 года
- Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial - Resúmenes de los capítulos 2 y 3; abril de 2016
- Informe sobre la estabilida financiera mundial - Resumen Ejecutivo; ; abril de 2016
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- IMF Warns of Threats to Financial Stability
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